The Houston Texans are undoubtedly better than their 0-2 record would suggest, but they’re quickly approaching a hole that may be too much to overcome. As talented as this team is, with the upside of not just making the playoffs but making a deep push in the postseason, an 0-3 start following a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday could be insurmountable.
Since the NFL expanded to 17 games in 2021, not a single team has started 0-3 and gone on to make the postseason. While history is made to be broken, and that’s a trend rather than a rule, the Texans would have to be the first to accomplish that just to reach the baseline of their expectations — making the playoffs.
That reality makes Sunday’s Week 3 matchup against the Jaguars feel like a must-win, especially given it’s a divisional game.
The AFC South has multiple teams with a legitimate chance to reach the playoffs, and Jacksonville is certainly one of them. Dropping to 0-3 wouldn’t mathematically eliminate Houston, but it would stack the odds heavily against them. Recent data makes it clear that climbing out of that kind of hole, no matter how talented the roster is, is extremely difficult.
It feels reminiscent of the Cincinnati Bengals' last season, a team with Super Bowl aspirations that stumbled early. Despite a late push, they finished 9-8 and still missed the playoffs because the early-season losses left too little margin for error. Houston could easily find itself in that same situation if it doesn’t start turning things around immediately.
In short, Sunday’s showdown with Jacksonville is shaping up as more than just another game on the schedule. For the Texans, it’s starting to look like a must-win.