What's real and what isn't for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings took down their division rivals on Sunday with a convincing 39-22 win over Green Bay in Minnesota. New starting quarterback Kyler Murray went down, but Carson Wentz stepped in and led the offense admirably. It is likely Wentz will start again next week, but nothing has been official. The Vikings offense scoring nearly 40 points is a welcome sight for a team who struggled offensively in 2025.
Week 1 games are tricky. Some teams set the tone for their season, but sometimes unpredictable wins are a mirage and trends that began in Week 1 don't make it to Week 2. So what is real for the Vikings moving forward?
The Vikings pressure numbers
Look, even if I didn't watch the game, I would have predicted Brian Flores sent blitzes in the high 50s to 75% range. When the blitzes came, they happened down the stretch, as Flores and the Vikings smelled blood in the water. Jordan Love was pressured on a league-high 56.5% of his dropbacks, and the Vikings generated pressure early on 39.1% of his dropbacks.
Minnesota used 11 five-man pressures on 19 fourth-quarter dropbacks, which produced five pressures, two sacks, two turnovers, and six negative plays. Love's EPA plummeted from 0.36/dropback to -0.75/dropback in the fourth quarter. That's how you close out a game.
Kevin O'Connell's halftime adjustments
Once Murray went down, all plans had to be adjusted, with Wentz taking the snaps. The initial plan was to run more three-receiver sets (56% in the first half) and keep Murray in shotgun. The plan stayed the same for Wentz, but the numbers changed drastically, according to Warren Sharp.
1st half:
56% 3-WR sets
58% shotgun
25% early down play action
2nd half:
20% 3-WR sets
28% shotgun
67% early down play action
Result?
1st half: -0.09 EPA/play
2nd half: + 0.41 EPA/play
Even being down 19-10 at halftime, O'Connell committed to playing off the idea of slowing the game down and running the football more. The wrinkle was play action and much more under center play calls. On 53.6% of under center snaps, the Vikings finished with an EPA of -0.13.
Justin Jefferson is back
Eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns for the best receiver in the NFL. After a 36.4% target share, 2.68 YPRR, 8.12 ADOT, and 1.04 EPA/target, Jefferson reminded the world that he isn't to be forgotten in the discussion for the best receiver. Now, this is hard to continue as Jordan Addison will be involved and surely Jauan Jennings will catch more than zero passes, but it's good to see the involvement and Jefferson's playmaking on display.
Might be a good idea to keep targeting him.
