Aug 30, 2026 2:20 AM

Despite missing early games due to injury, ESPN’s data model projects the Packers' elite pass rusher to dominate the sack leaderboards, creating a massive hurdle for Minnesota’s rivals.

The Minnesota Vikings have a difficult matchup ahead in Week 1. It will be less difficult because of who they won't have to face in Week 1.

Green Bay Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons will supposedly start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list for the first four games of the 2026 season. It may not be until Game No. 6 or later that Parsons is able to play.

Despite that belief, one NFL prediction model suggests that Parsons will be toward the top of the NFL in sacks again this season. That prediction is turning heads.

The Vikings rival player and Green Bay Packers edge rusher is predicted to finish with the second-highest sack total in the NFL with 11.1, per ESPN's sack forcast model. ESPN NFL analyst Seth Walder discussed what the Vikings and other teams will have to deal with when Parsons comes to town. Here's what he had to say.

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"Parsons (is) projected to play 619 snaps this season, slightly down from the 669 he played in 14 games in 2025 -- which indicates a slight increase in snaps per game if Parsons were to come back from his knee injury in Week 6 and play the rest of the season. Still, it's incredible that Parsons is projected to miss a third of the season yet still manages to have the second-best forecast.

How? If we compare him to Myles Garrett, Parsons had a better pass rush win rate in each of the past two seasons, more sacks per game two years ago, is more than three years younger and is on a team that blitzes more. But if there's one overriding reason Parsons is ranked here, it's the combination of win rates alongside his previous double-digit sack seasons.

Parsons is a master of winning on a down-to-down basis but has never had more than 14 sacks in a season. But that could happen at any moment."

Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons (1) celebrates after sacking Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) on Sunday, November 23, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 23-6.Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons (1) celebrates after sacking Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) on Sunday, November 23, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 23-6.

Whether or not the elite player can finish No. 2 in the NFL in just 11 games played is still to be seen. We're not going to argue with a computer model, though. The projection is based on Parsons' track record.

What is for certain is that Parsons won't be getting any of those sacks against Minnesota in Week 1, if the reports are correct. The Vikings may have a much smoother start to the season with new starting quarterback Kyler Murray not concerned about Parsons coming off the edge.

Murray and company will hope to secure a season opening win over the Packers in Parsons' absence.

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