NIL deals are decimating late-round NFL draft talent. Scouts warn a significant drop-off means fewer impactful players emerge from rounds four through seven.
The Minnesota Vikings have made five picks in the first three rounds of the 2026 NFL draft. Perhaps they should be grateful that they did.
One NFL insider is warning that the draft is about to get weaker. Andrew Brandt shares that scouts are sharing that the drop off is set to be significant. He told Ross Tucker of The Ross Tucker Podcast why we should not expect many great players drafted between the fourth and seventh round of this year's draft.
"I talked to an NFL scout last week. And I think he told me the same thing last year, but I think it was rounds six and seven. Now, it's rounds four through seven. What do I mean? Last year from rounds six through seven, wiped out from NIL. This year, rounds four through seven, wiped out from NIL. So, as you watch the draft, or hear about the draft, on Saturday, rounds four through seven, know that NFL scouts are looking at a crop of players that is weakened significantly by NIL.
In other words, a lot of the players that would be fourth to seventh round picks have chosen to stay in school rather than go to the draft, a lot. And the reason is money. Think about what I'm saying. Let that sink in. The reason is money in college vs. the NFL. If you're a low round NFL draft pick, you get a bonus, a couple hundred thousand dollars, lowest rounds, maybe four-to-five hundred thousand dollars in the four-to-fifth round, and then a salary if you make the team."
The realization is an interesting one given how much more money the NFL makes than does college football. However, the motivation to bring in some of these late-round players varies significantly between college and the NFL.
Take the quarterback position, for instance. Prior to the Miami Hurricanes' College Football Playoff run, the team reportedly offered Carson Beck a sizable NIL offer to play quarterback for the 2025 season. Beck was not selected until the No. 65 pick in the NFL draft.
The Miami quarterback is one of hundreds of players that bring immense value to their college team that is not viewed as highly in the NFL draft. For fourth through seventh round players, the value continues to drop as NFL teams may be reluctant to match college NIL offers for players that might not even make an NFL roster.
The Vikings may find a steal or two in the last four rounds, but it's fair to temper expectations. We'll see how the draft turns out when draft picks reach the field.