The all-world wide receiver has seen a steep decline in his production, but is he getting open at the same rate?
With three weeks left to play, Justin Jefferson is in danger of finishing with less than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career. The idea seems unfathomable for the player who began his career with the highest totals of any receiver in the history of the NFL. That's right, not Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, or Terrell Owens, but Jefferson's start was the best in NFL history.
Trying to point to one reason for this development isn't easy. The reality is it isn't just one thing. When Jefferson is open, J.J. McCarthy has failed to deliver the ball. When McCarthy delivers the ball, Jefferson has dropped passes. When Jefferson is a focus for the passing offense, it has been quick throws at the line of scrimmage in hopes of breaking tackles and making plays.
However, you slice it, 2025 has been a frustrating season for everyone involved. To Jefferson's credit, he has supported his young quarterback and for the most part, done all the right things.
The things in Jefferson's control is catching the football when it's on target and getting himself open, but what does his separation numbers look like in 2025?
Pro Football Focus has published their separation report and the numbers are startling.
First, let's explain how the metric is valued.
"Separation percentage measures how often a receiver beats the coverage to get open rather than benefiting from a defense more focused on limiting yards after the catch or stopping them short of the first down.
This metric is not limited to just targeted routes. Instead, it looks at all routes run where a defense tries to prevent a receiver from getting open."
On 479 receiving snaps, Jefferson has 190 separation opportunities. Of those opportunities, Jefferson has 87 snaps with separation, which comes to 45.79%. That number shouldn't be alarming to anyone given the added attention to Jefferson by opposing secondaries. The point is one-on-one, Jefferson still creates space on his own. That's good news.
What about Week 15?
Against Dallas, Jefferson had 28 separation opportunities. PFF charted 12 snaps to create separation, which Jefferson cashed in four times for a 33.33 separation rate. For reference, that's tied with George Kittle, Trey McBride, and Nico Collins.
The Vikings passing offense has just been a tick off and Jefferson has been the primary example of the "so close, yet so far" picture from 2025. There isn't much to worry about moving forward. Jefferson is still that guy.