What play-calling tendencies does O'Connell have?
Kevin O'Connell is widely regarded as a top head coach and play caller in the NFL. The struggles for the Minnesota Vikings on offense were many in 2025, but the play-calling and system aren't an issue. Multiple quarterbacks have been successful under O'Connell, including Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. Justin Jefferson is off to a historic beginning to his career. The talent and scheme are there.
Kyler Murray will start Week 1 for Minnesota.
What do the numbers say about O'Connell's tendencies in each down-and-distance situation? Where does the offense rank in pass rates over expectation?
According to Football Insights, O'Connell is sixth in pass rates over expectation overall, behind Josh McDaniels, Sean Payton, Zac Taylor, Mike McCarthy, and Andy Reid. Now, reading that alone could lead someone to believe Minnesota only throws the football. The rate over expected is 1.4%.
A closer look shows some interesting tendencies in different situations.
On 1st & 10, O'Connell is at the bottom of the league in PROE at -4.1%. In no other down and distance does the rate dip below 3.1%.
Where things get interesting is on third down:
3rd & 5+: 3.1%, 2nd behind Reid (3.2%)
3rd & 3-4: 5.4%, 2nd behind Taylor (5.4%)
3rd & 1-2: 3.5%, 4th behind Mike LaFleur (4.2%)
As far as the red zone rates go, O'Connell is third (7.23%) inside the 20, behind Reid (7.5%), and second inside the five (10.1%), behind new Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy (10.4%).
For the most part, you can expect O'Connell's tendencies to continue, but maybe the rates come down a bit, knowing Murray's legs at quarterback are a weapon. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are back, and Demond Claiborne should round out the backfield.
You can expect a bounce back for the Vikings offense with Murray under center. The throws are there. Quarterback play was down last season, but execution wasn't up to the standard. Both Jefferson and Jordan Addison can admit they left plays on the field with drops or miscommunications on routes.
The addition of Jauan Jennings leans towards play call balance. Yes, Jennings is a big target for the red zone and on third downs. His run blocking is just as valuable and gives O'Connell something to make the defense think about in third and short or red zone situations.
You can expect a bounce back season from the Vikings and the passing offense in 2026.