Sunday's game is the last stand for Minnesota, of sorts.
Week 12 is a critical one for the Minnesota Vikings. Not only is a rivalry game in store with the Green Bay Packers, but any opportunity to make a run for a playoff spot in the NFC is on the line. At 4-6, it isn't impossible to sneak into the playoffs, but a loss to drop to 4-7 makes the season effectively over.
According to PFF, the Vikings have less than a 10% chance of securing a playoff spot. With a win, that number grows slightly to over ten percent, and a loss pushes them as close as possible to zero. The only way to fully guarantee a playoff spot is to win seven straight games to finish the season, but that is highly unlikely given the parity across the NFL in 2025.
According to NFL.com, the Vikings have a similar probability at 9%. A win pushes them to 12% and a loss drops them to 2%. The three teams ahead of Minnesota for the seventh spot, currently occupied by the San Francisco 49ers, are the Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers (who meet the 49ers on MNF), and their division rivals, the Detroit Lions.
Dallas faces off with Philadelphia with a playoff probability of 7%. A loss to the defending Super Bowl champions drops them to 2%. Meanwhile, the Lions are facing the Jameis Winston-led New York Giants with a 75% probability, following a loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia. A win for the Lions puts them at 81% and in the driver's seat for a playoff spot with Chicago and Green Bay.
The Vikings swept the Packers last season with Sam Darnold under center, and will need a third straight victory to keep their fading playoff chances alive. The Packers have spoken openly this week about the feeling of losing twice to their division rivals last season and have circled this matchup as a key one. To leave with a victory will take Minnesota's best game of the season.
Minnesota will also need some help this week. The Bears square off with Pittsburgh, and perhaps Aaron Rodgers, who is dealing with an injured left hand. Rodgers has owned the Bears, so Minnesota will hope that trend continues and Chicago falls to 7-4. A win over the Packers will drop Green Bay to 6-4-1, and maybe Winston can conjure up some magic and lead the Giants to an upset to bring the Lions to 6-5.
Unfortunately, the Vikings need help due to early-season losses, but it isn't impossible in a season with crazy, unexpected losses.