After a breakout performance against Washington, J.J. McCarthy has a chance to prove it wasn’t a one-off as the Vikings take on a vulnerable Cowboys defense on Sunday night.
J.J. McCarthy had the best game of his young career in the Minnesota Vikings' 31-0 win over the Washington Commanders last Sunday. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 163 yards and three touchdowns while committing no turnovers, the first time he had accomplished that this season.
Part of the reason for McCarthy's breakout game was that the Commanders featured one of the worst pass defenses in football. Through 14 weeks, only two teams have allowed more yards through the air than Washington (246.9). That helped take pressure off McCarthy, allowing him to play more freely.
One of the two teams that give up more passing yards than the Commanders is the Dallas Cowboys, the Vikings' matchup this week. Dallas has yielded 255.2 passing yards per game this year, and their 7.0 yards per pass allowed is third-worst in the league.
Without Micah Parsons, the Cowboys are also having a tougher time getting to the quarterback this season than they have in the past. Dallas ranks 15th in pressure rate, per Next Gen Stats, and is tied for 20th in sacks. That's good news for McCarthy, who is facing pressure on 39.5% of dropbacks and is taking 3.4 sacks per game, the fourth-most among qualified quarterbacks.
Of course, the Cowboys could easily tell themselves that McCarthy and the Vikings' offense are precisely what they need to get back on track defensively. His 67.4 passer rating and 56.0% completion percentage are both the worst among all starting quarterbacks. At 6.0 yards per attempt, only two quarterbacks average fewer yards per pass than he does.
But McCarthy is still 22 years old and is set to make only his eighth career start on Sunday night in Dallas. The fact that he made progress against the Commanders after a rough three-game slump was encouraging. His 7.1 yards per attempt was the highest he had thrown for since Week 2, and his 69.2% completion percentage was by far the highest of the season.
Those stats are great, but they didn't come by accident, either. McCarthy got rid of the ball in a season-best 2.56 seconds, but that was only part of the offensive game plan. He averaged 7.1 air yards per attempt, the second-lowest of the season. And excluding three kneel-downs to run the clock out, the Vikings ran the ball on a season-high 53.4% of offensive snaps.
Fortunately for Minnesota, the Cowboys aren't good against the run, either. Dallas allows 4.7 yards per rush, and its +0.08 EPA per run allowed is the second-highest in the league. So if the Vikings want to replicate their game plan against the Cowboys, they probably have the chance to do so if Kevin O'Connell intends to go against his pass-heavy philosophy to play to McCarthy's strengths.
Regardless of how the Vikings attack the Cowboys, we still want to see McCarthy be efficient when he puts the ball in the air. But one area we would like to see him really improve is in getting Justin Jefferson the ball. The superstar wideout only has two 100-yard games this season, and both came when Carson Wentz was under center.
Jefferson has also gone five straight games without a touchdown and only has two on the season. He has handled the down season with class, but has still made it known he wants the ball. O'Connell and he even made a concerted effort to get him a reception on a play they drew up on the sideline. If McCarthy had a split second longer to throw the ball, he could have found Jefferson for a 66-yard touchdown.
But with four games left this season, we're looking for consistency from McCarthy. And the best thing that he can do after an efficient day of passing against the Commanders is to follow it up with another one in Dallas. The lights will be bright on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys present another opportunity for McCarthy to show he can still grow into the franchise quarterback the Vikings envisioned when they drafted him.