We spent months talking about which 12 teams would make the College Football Playoffs, and now that the field is set, it's time to figure out who's going to win the thing.

The bracket was filled out on Dec. 7, and we've finally got some football this weekend. There are four first-round games on home campuses, one on Friday night and three more on Saturday. 

The winners will advance to the quarterfinals at bowl games around New Year's Day, where the top four seeds with byes — No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech — await their opponents. 

This is the second year of the 12-team format, and last year the home teams won all four first-round games. Will that happen again? 

It seems unlikely that form will hold in back-to-back years, but you never know. We've got two tight matchups, and two expected blowouts.

Here are my picks for the first round, both straight up and against the spread.

Who: No. 9 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3, 7-1 in SEC) vs. No. 8 seed Oklahoma Sooners (10-2, 6-2 in SEC).
What: College Football Playoff first-round game.
When: Friday, 8 p.m. ET.
Where: Memorial Stadium, Norman, Okla.
Weather: 51 degrees and clear at kickoff, with winds from the south at 16 mph.
How they got there: Both teams were wild-card selections.
The winner gets: No. 1 seed Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2026.
TV: ABC/ESPN
Point spread: Oklahoma is a 1.5-point favorite according to the Fanduel.com gambling website. Alabama was a 1.5-point favorite on the opening line, but the majority of money has come in on Oklahoma so far. The over/under is 40.5 points.
Newsy nugget: Oklahoma has had Alabama's number lately. They've beaten the Crimson Tide twice in the last 13 months, winning 23-21 on Nov. 15 in Tuscaloosa, and 24-3 on Nov. 23, 2024 in Norman. Their defense has made things tough for the Crimson Tide. They gained only 234 total yards in the 2024 loss. This year, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson threw for 326 yards, but the Tide had three turnovers and lost despite outgaining Oklahoma 406-212. 
My pick:  I've gone back and forth on this game since the draw came out.  It's really hard to dismiss the Sooners' two wins over Alabama, not to mention home-field advantage on a raucous Friday night in Norman. Oklahoma's defense is legit, and Alabama has struggled to run the ball all year. Simpson was great the first 10 games, with 22 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. But in the last three games, he's had just four TDs and three interceptions. I think he'll be better about not turning the ball over, and he's already proven he can hit some big plays against Oklahoma. I'm taking the upset here. Alabama 24, Oklahoma 20. 

Who: No. 10 seed Miami Hurricanes (10-2, 6-2 in ACC) vs. No. 7 seed Texas A&M Aggies (11-1, 7-1 in SEC).
What: College Football Playoff first-round game.
When: Saturday, Noon ET.
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas.
Weather: 72 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff, with winds from the south-southwest at 18 mph.
How they got there: Both teams were wild-card selections.
The winner gets: No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas on Dec. 31.
TV: ABC/ESPN
Point spread: Texas A&M is a 3.5-point favorite according to the Fanduel.com gambling website.  The over/under is 48.5 points.
Newsy nugget: Miami spent a month or more complaining about being ranked so low by the CFP selection committee, but in the final rankings, they passed Notre Dame and worked their way into the field. Winning four in a row by wide margins was impressive, and quarterback Carson Beck has been playing well. He's the guy with postseason experience from his time at Georgia. It will matter. 
My pick:  I have spent three months wondering just how good Texas A&M is, because if you can have an easy SEC schedule, they had it. They started league play 7-0, but they beat seven teams who finished in the bottom half of the standings. The one good SEC team they played – Texas — beat them 27-17 in the final week, costing them their first SEC title. I just don't think they are that good, and Miami has been red-hot over its last four games, with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. They stay hot, and win in a shootout. Miami 31, Texas A&M 27.

Who: No. 11 seed Tulane Green Wave (11-2, 7-1 in American) vs. No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels (11-1, 7-1 in SEC).
What: College Football Playoff first-round game.
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET.
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss. 
Weather: 64 degrees and sunny at kickoff, with winds from the south at 10 mph.
How they got there: Ole Miss was a wild-card selection; Tulane won the American conference championship game and was the fourth-highest conference champion.
The winner gets: No. 3 seed Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, La. on Jan. 1.
TV: TNT/truTV
Point spread: Ole Miss is a 17.5-point favorite according to the Fanduel.com gambling website.  The over/under is 57.5 points.
Newsy nugget: This is also a rematch from earlier this year, when Ole Miss won 45-10 in Oxford on Sept. 20. It really could have been worse. Ole Miss threw for 307 yards and ran for 241 more. Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been really good all year, but that day he threw for only 56 yards, going just 5-for-17 passing. He threw for 230 yards or more eight different times the rest of the year.  
My pick:  I guessed wrong on the point spread on this one by four or fives points. I thought it would be higher, but the Lane Kiffin departure seems to be having an effect on the wagering. Still, I think the Ole Miss players have a lot to prove under new coach Pete Golding. Maybe they don't win by 35 again, but this is at least a three-score game. The Rebels are that good. Ole Miss 42, Tulane 17.

Who: No. 12 seed James Madison Dukes (12-1, 8-0 in Sun Belt) vs. No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks (11-1, 8-1 in Big Ten).
What: College Football Playoff first-round game.
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET.
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. 
Weather: 43 degrees and cloudy at kickoff, with winds from the south at 3 mph.
How they got there: Oregon was a wild-card selection; James Madison won the Sun Belt conference championship game and was the fifth-highest conference champion.
The winner gets: No. 4 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, Fla. on Jan. 1.
TV: TNT/truTV
Point spread: Oregon is a 20.5-point favorite according to the Fanduel.com gambling website.  The over/under is 45.5 points.
Newsy nugget: It's kind of ironic that James Madison has made the playoff, considering No. 1 seed Indiana is led by former JMU coach Curt Cignetti and he led one of the most amazing transformations in college football with 13 James Madison transfers. The message should be clear. Don't underestimate these players, even if there are no four- or five-star players on the Dukes roster.
My pick:  Speaking of Indiana, the Hoosiers are the only team to beat Oregon all year. They are 11-1 and are 22-1 under Dan Lanning at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks are a complete team fully capable of winning a national championship and I think their overall speed will be far too much for James Madison to handle. I'm guess the Ducks bust out for four or five plays of 40 yards or more, and their defense will keep JMU in check all night. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is already an emerging star, and this is the start of an impressive playoff run. This game is a rout. Oregon 45, James Madison 13.

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