• Powered by Roundtable
    Tom Brew
    Dec 26, 2025, 10:30
    Updated at: Dec 26, 2025, 10:30

    The expanded College Football Playoff offers exciting quarterfinal matchups next week, but don't expect a repeat of last year's struggles for the top-four seeds. This year's elite contenders — Indiana, Ohio State and Georgia — are all favored and poised to dominate.

    BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Expanding the College Football Playoff from four teams to 12 was a good idea, and I think most everyone is on board with the move. But getting there, with all the appropriate steps along the way, has been a bit of a challenge.

    We're learning as we go, and stumbling now and then — probably more than we like. The system, while better, is nowhere near perfect. Not even close. 

    There are two issues that jump out the most right now with the CFP. One is the timeline in which it is played out, a whopping 44 days since the end of the regular season before determining a champion. Crowning a champion on Jan. 19 is far too late.

    Secondly is how we handle automatic qualifiers and their roles — and positions — in the field. The most obvious complaint in the first week was what American Athletic Conference champion Tulane and Sun Belt winner James Madison were even doing in the field in the first place after ugly blowouts to Ole Miss and Oregon.

    The issues with automatic qualifiers were even worse last year, to be honest. In the first rendition of this playoff, the committee thought was fair to give the four best conference champions a bye in the first round. That meant Mountain West champ Boise State and Big 12 champ Arizona State were the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds, respectively.

    Both lost to better teams in the quarterfinals, with Texas beating Arizona State and Penn State beating Boise. The top-two seeds — No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Georgia — then also got steamrolled by the two hottest teams in the game at the time, Ohio State and Notre Dame.

    So, not a single top-four seed won a game.

    This year, though, is different. In 2025, the four best teams in the country — Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech — are the top-four seeds. And even though we feel good about their opponents and how they looked in the first round, I don't see the top-four all going down this year.

    Top seeds looking the part

    Oddsmakers feel the same way.

    No. 1 seed Indiana is a 6.5-point favorite over No. 9 Alabama, No. 2 Ohio State is a 9.5-point pick over No. 10 Miami, and No. 3 Georgia is a 6.5-point fave over No. 6 Ole Miss. Only the No. 4 seed, Texas Tech, is a shaky pick. It's No. 5 Oregon — who is 11-1 with its only loss to Indiana — that's actually favored over the Red Raiders, by 1.5-points.

    Last year, Georgia was the only team with a bye to even be favored, and that was just by a point at kickoff. It was a flawed bracket, and it played out that way.

    This year is different. 

    This year, the best teams have the byes. And they will likely win the quarterfinals. Sure, there might be an upset — but now way there are going to be four.

    The teams with byes also have the benefit of seeing how it all works after last year. From the day after the field was announced, the top teams have had plans in place to deal with the three-plus weeks between games.

     "It is what it is, so you make the most of it,'' Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said. "The way we approached it until we knew the opponent, we treated it like two bye weeks. Now we have almost two weeks to prepare for the opponent.

    "Would I prefer to play earlier? Yeah, I probably would, to be quite honest with you. But that's not the case. We're excited about playing. We're off to a good start. And it will be a tremendous challenge (against Alabama in the Rose Bowl).''

    Indiana is 24-2 over the past two years since Cignetti arrived, and the one thing that opponents always praise him for is how well prepared his teams are. They find your weaknesses, and exploit them, over and over. 

    And that's with a game every Saturday. Give Cignetti two weeks to prepare, and the Hoosiers are going to have a great game plan to attack Alabama. Does Alabama have flaws? Of course they do. They have three losses, to a bad Florida State team, to an Oklahoma team at home with flaws of their own and a beatdown by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. 

    There's plenty of film on how to beat Alabama. And the coaching staff at Indiana, film junkies all of them, will be well prepared. They have a process, and it's worked for two years. It will work again on Jan. 1.

    Similar script for Ohio State after loss

    Ohio State is the reigning champion, and they've been through this before, too. They were the best team in the country from Week 1 on this year, right up until Indiana beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game.

    A chip on their shoulder? Damn right. They watched Miami's defense shut down Texas A&M in the first round, but they'll be ready.

    “Everybody’s just moving around with an edge. Everybody is pissed off,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said Monday. “Everybody wants to get it right and wants to win. Nobody likes to lose. Nobody. And it's a game that we felt like we shouldn't have lost.

    "You've got to learn from it, grow from it, and move on. And when you sit on it for this long of a time, it doesn't sit well. So we got to make sure that that doesn't happen again.”

    Ohio State had a great run through the playoffs last year after that stunning defeat to a five-loss Michigan team. They steamrolled through Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame for the national crown.

    Losing to Indiana this year was a great reminder of the Michigan loss. And they plan to react the same way.

    “I've fortunately been in this position last year,” Ohio State All-American guard Carson Hinzman said. “Somewhat similar of a situation, where you see some things where you're like, ‘OK.’

    "As the season progresses, maybe sometimes you get away from a little bit of fundamental work. But that's exactly what we've been doing this past couple weeks to get back into it, to get ready to go play some of these great (Miami pass) rushers that we have coming out.”

    Georgia's veterans have great memory

    Georgia didn't like getting run out of the playoffs in its first game a year ago, and has no interest in that happening again, either. Coach Kirby Smart likes the idea that he has a veteran team, and that a lot of them went through the loss a year ago.

    That includes quarterback Gunner Stockton, the only returning QB in the playoffs.

    “Yeah, I think it was huge for him. I mean, and all the games he played this year, he created value through those experiences,'' Smart said. "Even the second half of the SEC Championship (in 2024 against Texas), number one, those were huge moments. Those were huge atmospheres, but those were really good defenses at Texas and Notre Dame, those two games, the game in the SEC Championship and the game at the Sugar Bowl.

    "So, they certainly created confidence for him. How much that transitions to this year, I think is way more about the games he’s played in this year already."

    The Texas Tech-Oregon game is too close to call, which is no surprise for those of us who've watched a lot of 4-5 games during the first weekend of the NCAA basketball tournament. The Red Raiders are 12-1 and Big 12 champions, and their cash-infused roster paid off in going from 8-5 to 12-1 in one year. Their conference schedule leaves a lot of unknowns, too.

    Oregon has looked good most of the year, but they don't really have any signature wins themselves. They had, shall we say, a fortunate Big Ten schedule, avoiding Ohio State, USC and Michigan. They beat USC and Iowa, which is about as impressive as it gets. Their early win over Penn State turned out to lose all of its value after the Nittany Lions lost six in a row.

    We're just a few days away from the quarterfinals now. We get Ohio State-Miami on Dec. 31, and then a great tripleheader on New Year's Day. It starts with Texas Tech-Oregon, followed by Indiana-Alabama in the Rose Bowl and the Georgia-Ole Miss rematch in the Sugar Bowl.

    It'll be a heck of a lot of fun for 24 hours. It's a shame we've had to wait so long, but it's certainly going to give us a great final four. (Yeah, that's lower case for football.) Don't be surprised to see all the favorites making a statement.