Arsenal are nine points clear of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League, but with City still holding a game in hand and a head-to-head meeting to come, the title maths changes depending on that result.
Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Everton, coupled with Manchester City’s 1-1 draw at West Ham, has sharpened the Premier League title picture. Arteta’s side are now nine points clear at the top, though City still have a game in hand, and that leaves Arsenal in a position where the maths is starting to come into focus. With seven league matches remaining, the question is no longer whether Arsenal are in the race, but exactly what they need from here to make first place certain.
Arsenal’s title race position is best understood through maximum points, not by assuming when results will come. After the win over Everton and Manchester City’s draw at West Ham, Arsenal have seven Premier League games left and City have eight. Arsenal can still reach a maximum of 91 points. City can still reach a maximum of 85.
That means Arsenal need to finish on 86 points to guarantee the title regardless of goal difference. From their current total of 70, that means 16 more points from the final seven games.
Arsenal need 16 points from 7 matches to win the Premier LeagueArsenal need any combination worth 16 points from seven matches. The most important fixture left is the away game against Manchester City, because it takes points away from one side or both. But the clean way to frame it is to ask what Arsenal then need from the other six matches, not to assume where they will be in the table by that date.
If Arsenal beat Manchester City
If Arsenal beat City, then one of the required wins is already accounted for. Arsenal would have taken 3 points from the City game and City’s maximum possible total would drop from 85 to 82.
A win means a 6 point difference in actuality for Arsenal. Not only do the Gunners gain 3 points, but the points dropped by City has a further 3 points impact on the final points required by Arsenal, dropping from 86, to 83.
Since they would already have taken 3 points from beating City, they would need 10 more points from the other six matches.
An Arsenal win has a 6 point impact on the title race.If Arsenal draw with Manchester City
If Arsenal draw with City, Arsenal would take 1 point from that game and City’s maximum possible total would drop from 85 to 83.
Although the point difference stays equal between the two sides, it still reduces the points required by Arsenal by 2 points.
That would mean Arsenal need to reach 84 points to guarantee the title. Since they would already have taken 1 point from the City game, they would need 13 more points from the other six matches.
A draw against City would still swing the title race in Arsenal's favour. However, the Gunners cannot rely on it.If Arsenal lose to Manchester City
If Arsenal lose, Arsenal take 0 points from that game and City’s maximum possible total stays at 85.
So Arsenal would still need to reach 86 points to guarantee the title. With no points gained from the City game, that means they would need the full 16 points from the other six matches.
If Arsenal lose, the Gunners will still require 16 points from their other fixturesArsenal’s remaining fixtures are Bournemouth, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, Fulham, Burnley and Crystal Palace, which means there is still little room for complacency despite the gap at the top.
The City game is the obvious pivot point, but the wider message is straightforward. After Saturday’s results, Arsenal have placed themselves in control of the title race. Now the task is to turn that advantage into the points total that finishes the job.