Football has a bad memory, but bad seasons leave their mark. Real Madrid will return to Camp Nou carrying a campaign that has been falling apart. Eliminated from the Copa del Rey, with Bayern waiting for them in the Champions League with an advantage, and nine points behind a Barcelona that is close to another league title. Little is at stake other than honor, given an insurmountable gap. For Arbeloa's men, the penance takes place in Catalonia.

The end could come on May 10. Barcelona could reach that Clasico with a nine-point lead and the same number of games played as Madrid. Before that, both have three league matches: the Catalans host Celta and travel to Getafe and Pamplona; Madrid plays at home against Alaves, visits Betis, and Espanyol.

If both win all three, the Clasico arrives with the nine-point gap intact, which would crown Barcelona champion if they win at home. If Madrid slips in any of their matches and Barcelona takes care of theirs, the title celebration could come even before that weekend.

According to the math, for Camp Nou not to be the stage for the title celebration, Madrid needs to win its three previous matches and hope that Barcelona stumbles at least once. Only in that scenario would the Clasico arrive with no title at stake for the Catalans.

Any other scenario, any slip by Madrid or additional win by Barcelona, brings the crown closer to Barcelona before or during the night of the Clasico. Each matchday that passes without Madrid cutting points, the miracle moves further away.

If Madrid's collapse continues and Flick's men celebrate the title before the Clasico, Madrid would return to Camp Nou with something more than just a match ahead: the dilemma of the guard of honor. The only precedent in that stadium is from 1988, when Barcelona applauded the fifth of del Buitre as league champions.

In 2018, the situation was reversed. Madrid visited Camp Nou with Barcelona already champions, and Zidane summed it up with a phrase. "We are not going to do the guard of honor for Barcelona, that is my decision," he said.

But before the gestures, there is the match. Arbeloa's Madrid still has the Champions League to salvage -- Bayern won 1-2 at the Bernabeu -- and a league that is already Barcelona's barring catastrophe.

If they fail to resolve their Champions League situation, the Clasico could be the final blow in a campaign to forget. Without a cushion, without authority, and with the ghost of a season that has been unraveling since that Supercup in January.

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