The Numbers Behind Arda Guler's Start to the Season with Real Madrid

Although some would say the brace from Kylian Mbappe in El Clasico puts him out in front, many people would argue that Arda Guler has been Real Madrid’s best player so far this season.

The Turkish international has played a more prominent part in each of his four seasons at the club, and he has already taken a huge leap so far this campaign under the tutelage of the boss Jose Mourinho.

In September, Guler was named Real Madrid’s player of the month, and his general performances have been absolutely excellent all season, mostly playing off the right hand side but also as a number ten, and also in a deeper midfield role.

So, with the eye test you know he’s been brilliant so far. But failing that, the stats also back up the Turk’s brilliance since the beginning of the season. Let’s take a look at just how good his numbers are. 

Having played 773 minutes across all competitions - the equivalent of around 8.5 full games - Guler has scored three goals and provided five assists. Now, those stats are good, very good in fact, but maybe not mind blowing as such.

However, when you take a deeper look into these stats, the underlying numbers, it looks even better. Although the youngster has five assists, he has actually created 14(!) big chances. So he is creating not too far of two big chances for every 90 minutes he plays. 

A good example of Guler being let down by team mate's finishing is the 1-0 defeat to Real Betis, where he created three big chances. Although the team have scored plenty of goals this season, there could have been a fair few more. 

In La Liga this season, the 21-year old has created 39 chances, four more than the next player in Lamine Yamal. But again, let's take a deeper look. When you look at chances created per 90, Guler is way in front on his own - with just under 5.5 chances created per 90. No other player in the league has as many as 4. 

Regarding big chances created in the league, Guler is second with 12, three behind Yamal. There is an argument to say those two have been the best creative players in the world so far this season. 

Even when you extend this to the international stage, the Real Madrid playmaker has three big chances created in three games for Turkey in the UEFA Nations League, despite their poor form.

As for the goals, three goals is a fairly modest return, but once again, let's take a deeper look. His role in the team is, primarily, to create chances for the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham. 

But also, notably, Guler has an xG this season of 4.40 - on the face of it, you could perceive that as a negative, as it suggests he is underperforming in front of goal, and should have scored more. 

Well, it can actually be a positive. Because it implies he is getting into good positions. His goal threat is more sustainable in the medium and long term if he has 4.40 xG, rather than if he had scored three times from say, 0.93xG. 

So, all in all - the eye test and the numbers tell us that Guler is having an absolutely brilliant season, and long may it continue. Considering the excellent recent form of Yan Diomande, it will be very interesting to see which two of the Ivorian, Vinicius Jr and Guler get the nod in the starting XI.