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Arsenal head to Manchester City with Bukayo Saka ruled out and several others facing late fitness checks, as Mikel Arteta’s side try to protect a six-point lead over their closest title rivals in the Premier League.

Arsenal return to Premier League duty on Sunday with little doubt about the scale of the task. Arteta’s side go to the Etihad Stadium six points clear of Manchester City, who also have a game in hand, which makes this the clearest swing fixture left in the title race. City manager Pep Guardiola has already described the match as a “final” for his side’s hopes, while Arsenal arrive after sealing a place in the Champions League semi-finals with a 1-0 aggregate win over Sporting CP.

Team news

The biggest confirmed Arsenal absence is Bukayo Saka. Arteta said: “Bukayo is out, that’s for sure,” before adding that the winger is only just starting to increase his workload. That means Arsenal will be without one of their most important attacking players for a game that could go a long way towards deciding the title.

There is more hope around Noni Madueke, who came off against Sporting. Arteta said the winger “didn’t look that bad” after the game and was “quite positive”, but made clear Arsenal still needed to see whether he could train. Jurrien Timber, Martin Odegaard and Riccardo Calafiori are also pushing to be involved after missing the Sporting second leg, although Arteta’s line was cautious rather than definitive. “Some players are quite close,” he said, “but the turnaround is short.” Mikel Merino remains out.

Manchester City’s picture looks a little clearer. Nico O’Reilly is fit to feature after limping off at Chelsea last weekend, while Ruben Dias remains unavailable for Guardiola’s side. City should go into the game with one notable defensive absence, but without the same level of late uncertainty around multiple senior players that Arsenal are managing.

Form

Arsenal’s form has been mixed in the short term, even if the broader picture remains strong. The draw with Sporting on Wednesday was enough to send them through in Europe, but it followed the 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth that allowed City to close the gap at the top. Arteta’s side therefore go into this weekend balancing the lift of a Champions League semi-final with the frustration of dropped league points.

City, by contrast, arrive with momentum, having not lost a league game since mid-January, while recent results have included a 3-0 win at Chelsea and victory over Arsenal in last month’s League Cup final. Guardiola has also said young forward Nico O’Reilly is fit to feature.

What to expect

The main question is whether Arsenal can impose themselves high up the pitch often enough to stop the game becoming one long defensive exercise. Arteta has already made clear he is not preparing his side to play for a draw, saying Arsenal “prepare every game to win”. That suggests the Gunners will still look for moments to press, break City’s rhythm and attack the spaces that open up when Guardiola’s team push numbers forward.

At the same time, this does not look like a game Arsenal can afford to play loosely. City’s recent form has been built on confidence and quick attacking combinations, and Guardiola said his side have improved because of their belief as much as their tactics. Arsenal will need control as much as courage, especially if Madueke, Odegaard or Timber are not ready to start.

For Arsenal, the equation is simple even if the game is not. A draw would keep them firmly in charge of their own position, but Arteta’s message has been that the team are going to Manchester to win. Whether they can do that may depend on two things above all else: how many of those late fitness calls fall in their favour, and whether they can match City’s intensity for the full 90 minutes.

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