Arsenal sit third in CIES' latest game dictating index, with their opening five matches showing why possession alone only tells part of the story.
Arsenal rank third in a new CIES Football Observatory study assessing how Premier League teams dictate matches, behind only Manchester City and Tottenham.
The Gunners side have also had more possession than their opponents in each of their opening five league games, ranging from 54 per cent against Chelsea to 64 per cent against Coventry City.
Mikel Arteta's side scored 78.7 on the "game dictating index", narrowly behind Tottenham on 79.7 and Manchester City on 80.1. The study covers 68 leagues and uses 27 different indicators to establish the rankings which cover the opening five fixtures of the 2026/27 season for Premier League teams.
Those indicators are split into three areas. Pressure reflects how much a team imposes itself without the ball, control covers the build-up phase, and occupation measures collective presence in attacking areas. Arsenal score 67 for pressure, 80 for control and 73 for occupation.
The Football Observatory is part of the International Centre for Sports Studies in Switzerland and has been publishing weekly research into professional football since 2012.
Arsenal's possession figures have been remarkably steady even though the games themselves have not.
They had 64 per cent against Coventry City and 61 per cent at Aston Villa, winning those opening two matches 3-0 and 1-0. Chelsea then came to the Emirates and Arsenal still finished with 54 per cent despite going behind inside two minutes, eventually turning the fixture around to win 2-1.
Another 57 per cent followed in the 2-0 victory at Sunderland. In a hardly routine evening of territorial dominance, with David Raya saving an Enzo Le Fee penalty before Bruno Guimaraes put Arsenal ahead just two minutes later.
By that stage Arteta's side had won four from four.
Brighton changed the results column without changing the possession pattern. Arsenal had 60 per cent of the ball at the Amex but were beaten 3-0, their first league defeat of the season. They still went into the international break second in the Premier League with 12 points from five matches.
Across those five games Arsenal have averaged just over 59 per cent possession, but the CIES study shows the Gunners are doing considerably more than just keeping the ball. Their strongest individual mark is the 80 awarded for control, while their scores for pressure and occupation keep them near the top when all three areas are combined.
The rankings offer data led insight into teams' approaches so far this season, but they don’t all directly correlate with results.
Tottenham are one place above Arsenal in the index despite reaching the international break bottom of the Premier League without a win. Brentford sit at the other end of that comparison. They are fourth and unbeaten, yet CIES ranks them 19th overall and describes their football as "less dominant and more opportunistic".
CIES is measuring the way teams try to take charge of matches, rather than rewarding the points they eventually collect.
Arsenal happen to rank highly on both fronts so far. Their four wins have come in games where they recorded between 54 and 64 per cent possession, but even within that run there have been very different performances and results. Villa were beaten by a single goal; Chelsea forced Arsenal to come from behind after scoring inside the opening two minutes, whilst David Raya's penalty save at Sunderland kept Arsenal level before Guimaraes broke the deadlock just two minutes later with the Gunners going on to win the match.
Brighton then provided the clearest separation between having the ball and making it count, handing the Gunners their first defeat of the season.
Arsenal return to Premier League action against Leeds United on October 10, looking to respond to the defeat at Brighton that brought their unbeaten start to an end before the international break.
