Arsenal’s remaining fixtures look favourable on paper, but Manchester City’s run-in may be more complicated than it first appears.
Do Arsenal really have the kinder run-in in the title race? It is a tempting argument, and there is enough in the fixture list to understand why it has taken hold.
Arsenal’s remaining league games are Newcastle, Fulham, West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace. Manchester City, because of the game in hand, still have Burnley, Crystal Palace, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa. That extra fixture matters immediately, because if City beat Burnley tonight, they can go top of the table. Arsenal’s list may still look cleaner overall, but the reality is more complicated than that.
There is, though, a strong case in Arsenal’s favour beyond just reading out the fixtures. Against those same five opponents earlier in the season, Arsenal took 15 points from 15. That matters. It turns the run-in from something theoretical into something this team has already done once. If the title race is going to be decided by whether Arsenal can repeat that level, then the opportunity is clearly there.
That said, Arsenal’s run is not automatically gentle simply because the list looks cleaner than City’s. Fulham are still chasing Europe from just outside the main group. West Ham are fighting at the other end and trying to stay clear of the relegation zone. Newcastle have not had the season many expected, but they remain one of the few sides that have consistently made Arsenal uncomfortable in recent years. On top of that, Arsenal have two Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid cutting straight through the middle of the run-in, between Newcastle at home, Fulham at home and West Ham away either side of them. That means there is no clean domestic run at all. Rotation, fatigue and concentration are likely to become part of the title equation.
There is also the issue of Arsenal’s form. Since the international break, they have won just one and lost three in all competitions. That is not title-winning form, and the injury problems across the squad have made building rhythm harder. So while Arsenal do have the kinder list of fixtures, they are not entering it from a position of total control. The opportunity is there. The question is whether they are stable enough to take it.
City’s run presents a different type of challenge. Burnley, especially given their situation, should be a win. But beyond that, the schedule is filled with teams who still have something to play for. Everton, Brentford and Bournemouth are all part of a congested race for Europe, while Aston Villa remain one of the strongest sides outside the title picture. These are not simple games, even if they might look that way at first glance.
The difference is that City look ready for it. Since the international break, they have won all three of their matches, including the win over Arsenal, and they have the kind of momentum that tends to define title run-ins. Their fixtures may be more awkward, but their form is stronger and their experience in these situations is clear.
So the conclusion is not complicated. Arsenal do have the kinder run-in. But it is only kinder if they play like the team that took 15 points from these fixtures earlier in the season, not the one that has struggled since the international break. If they get it right, the path is there. If they don’t, City will not need an easy run-in to take advantage.