Aston Villa failed to win a game that in an ideal world they would have won, for the second Sunday running.......
One point from Tottenham at home and Burnley away does not look good on paper. Both have struggled in the Premier League all season — Burnley had not even scored at home in three games — but with Aston Villa’s Europa League commitments, perhaps the wider footballing world can look at those results with a little more context.
However, there is more at play here than perhaps meets the eye.
Villa probably cannot afford to be taking one point from those two games. Bournemouth and Brighton are breathing down their necks and, for me, finishing outside the top five is now a risk I do not want taken.
For those of us tired of the so-called “big six”, the thought of Aston Villa finishing fifth and winning the Europa League is an appealing one. Although I envy aspects of the recruitment at Bournemouth and Brighton compared to Villa’s, it would still feel refreshing to see Villa and one of those clubs playing in the Champions League next season, while the likes of Chelsea and Spurs either miss out on Europe’s elite competition or Europe altogether.
The issue right now is that neither outcome can be guaranteed. Villa are not guaranteed to win the Europa League and they are not guaranteed to finish in the top five. Without trying to scaremonger, both possibilities are very real given the current landscape.
That solitary point from the aforementioned games could prove critical come the end of the season.
While the end almost justified the means against Spurs — although I am not sure I fully agree with that sentiment — a point away at an already relegated Burnley side with very little to play for simply is not good enough.
Villa did enough to win the game, but defensive lapses once again proved costly. Emery’s side are, in all likelihood, going to finish with the fewest Premier League goals scored in any of his full seasons as Aston Villa manager. Season after season, the output has declined. That means the defence has to be stronger than it has been in 2026 because, quite frankly, Villa have not been free-scoring by any stretch of the imagination.
I found myself lamenting the lack of goals in the team on Sunday. Watkins feels like he is getting back to his best, but everyone else seems to be struggling in front of goal. The club knew there would be a heavy reliance on Watkins and Rogers for output this season. Emi Buendía has been a pleasant surprise in terms of productivity, but overall it has been a difficult Premier League campaign offensively.
That issue will need addressing in the summer and Champions League football feels absolutely integral to solving it in the transfer market. First, though, Villa have to qualify.
For what it is worth, I think they will. But I do not like the fact Villa head into two games against opposition they do not have a great recent record against without top five already secured. Given the position the club found itself in heading into 2026, I felt this should have been wrapped up weeks ago.
The only real criticism of Emery’s Villa in recent years has been that, in the biggest knockout matches — particularly in the FA Cup and Conference League — they failed to show up. That ghost was finally laid to rest against Nottingham Forest last Thursday, but reaching a final brings a different kind of pressure, especially when you are viewed as favourites.
Emery is no stranger to European finals, but even he has often approached Europa League finals as the underdog. Aston Villa have carried expectation in this competition for a long time now and many of these players have never experienced a major final before. There are no guarantees in football.
What I am trying to get at here — and like Dion Dublin, I have gone round the houses to get there — is this: if Villa arrive in Istanbul carrying the dual pressure of trying to win the club’s first major trophy in 30 years while also needing to secure Champions League football, how will they react?
In my mind, having Champions League qualification wrapped up before the Europa League final was imperative and Villa are not at that point yet.
I am not trying to be overly negative, but the stakes are incredibly high for a number of reasons. We know the club is relying on Champions League football to continue building towards what the owners, Emery and the fans ultimately want Aston Villa to become. Nobody is going to do Villa any favours. Consistent Champions League qualification is massive.
I may well be sat here at the end of next weekend writing about how Villa have qualified after beating Liverpool, or perhaps another side might do Villa a favour elsewhere. But until it is mathematically secure, I will worry.
I guess that is just the nature of being a Villa fan. You never truly feel safe.
Up The Villa!