Has Morgan Rogers Done Enough To Keep Jude Bellingham Out?

One of the most fascinating selection dilemmas facing Thomas Tuchel ahead of England's World Cup opener against Croatia centres around two players who, on reputation alone, perhaps shouldn't even be competing for the same spot. In previous tournaments under different managers, that would probably be the case.

Jude Bellingham is one of the biggest names in world football. A Champions League winner, a regular for Real Madrid and a player capable of deciding matches at the very highest level. If England had a must-win game tomorrow and everyone was fully fit and firing, most supporters would probably have Bellingham's name among the first on the team-sheet.

Yet as we approach England's opening game, I find myself increasingly convinced that Morgan Rogers will start.

That is not a slight on Bellingham. It is simply a reflection of what has happened under Tuchel so far. In truth, if I were able to completely remove my Aston Villa hat, I would probably be picking Bellingham too.

The England manager has repeatedly spoken about rewarding players who have performed for him. Once you have the shirt, it's up to others to rip it off you.

He has often referenced trust, understanding of his system and continuity. If those comments are to be taken at face value, then Rogers has a very strong case.

Since Tuchel took charge, Rogers has become one of England's most important attacking players. He has started regularly, delivered consistently and looked completely comfortable at international level. Every time England have needed somebody to drive the team up the pitch, carry the ball through pressure and inject energy into attacks, Rogers has been that player. He has even chipped in with the odd goal and sumptuous assist.

It would feel strange for Tuchel to spend 18 months building that trust and then immediately abandon it when the tournament begins.

That said, there is an interesting contradiction developing within England's team selection.

If loyalty to performers is genuinely one of Tuchel's key principles, then why does it appear to apply in some positions and not others?

Take Ezri Konsa.

Konsa has been virtually ever-present under Tuchel. He has performed well, rarely let England down and looked comfortable whether playing centrally or at right-back. Yet all the indications suggest John Stones will start against Croatia if fit.

Again, that is understandable on one level. Stones has vast tournament experience and, at his best, is one of England's most accomplished defenders.

But it does slightly undermine the message that places are earned solely through performances under the current manager.

The reality is that managers always have favourites. Every coach talks about form and meritocracy, but when tournament football arrives, reputation and experience inevitably come into the equation.

That is why I think Rogers starts the competition, but Bellingham ultimately finishes it.

Tournament football often develops its own narrative. A substitute can change a game, swing momentum and suddenly become impossible to leave out. I can easily see a scenario where Rogers starts against Croatia because he has earned that right through his performances under Tuchel.

Then, at some point during the tournament, Bellingham produces one of those moments that only elite players can. A goal, an assist, a dominant midfield display. The sort of performance that reminds everybody exactly why he is regarded as one of the best players in the world.

If that happens, I suspect the debate ends there.

I do wonder if there is some form of man-management at play here from Tuchel. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I have a feeling he may be deliberately pushing Bellingham's buttons a little. Great managers often find ways to keep elite players motivated, even when those players appear to need no extra motivation at all.

I also thought it was a smart move to hand Bellingham the captain's armband against New Zealand. It felt like a reminder that, regardless of who starts against Croatia, Tuchel still views him as one of the leaders of this England squad.

My prediction is that Rogers starts England's World Cup opener against Croatia. But by the time England reach the latter stages of the competition, I think Bellingham will have played his way into the side and become the man Tuchel builds around.

Whether that proves to be the right call is another debate entirely.