Brentford would finish on 58 points if they repeated the reverse-fixture results from their final seven games, but that total feels more like a minimum than a decisive European push.
With seven games left, Brentford are close enough for Europe to feel like a live possibility rather than a nice thought. They begin the run-in on 46 points, within one win of both Chelsea and Liverpool, while Aston Villa’s advantage in fourth is eight points. Villa’s recent league form has also kept that conversation open, if only slightly.
The wider fixture list helps too. Brentford are not trying to chase down one side pulling away from the pack. Liverpool, for example, still have to face Manchester United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Brentford in their final seven league matches. That matters as all clubs are in the fight for European football, meaning every club could drop points in some form.
That brings Brentford back to the central question. What do they actually need from the run-in? One useful way of judging it is to look at the reverse fixtures. Their final seven games are Everton, Fulham, Manchester United, West Ham, Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Liverpool. Using the results from those same fixtures earlier in the season, Brentford would take 12 points.
That is a respectable return. It just may not be enough.
Another 12 points would leave Brentford on 58, a total that no longer looks especially convincing in the race for Europe. The last team to get there on 58 was Manchester United in 2021/22. Since then, the bar has climbed, with 61 enough for Aston Villa in 2022/23 and 65 required for Nottingham Forest last season.
The most obvious chance to do that is at home. Four of the last seven are at the Gtech, against Everton, Fulham, West Ham and Crystal Palace. The reverse-fixture model already assumes wins over Everton and West Ham, but it also assumes defeats to Fulham and Palace. That is where the run-in has to improve. If Brentford are serious about turning a good season into a genuine European push, home games against sides in and around them cannot simply be written off as repeat losses. However, a win in each home game would only bring the 12 points, with some of the biggest challenges to come away from home.
The away matches need to be judged differently. If Brentford were to win again at Old Trafford, Anfield of the Etihad, those would be major results. But they are not the sort of outcomes a realistic finishing target should rely on. The stronger route is to make the Gtech count, take more from the winnable home fixtures, and treat anything gained from the toughest away days as a bonus.
That is why 12 points is a helpful marker, but not quite a convincing one. Brentford do not need to do something extraordinary to stay in the race. They do need to do a little more than they managed in the reverse fixtures, especially at home. With the teams above still due to take points off one another, that extra edge could be enough to turn a respectable finish into a serious push for Europe.