Slow Start, Positive Trends: How Crystal Palace are Moving in the Right Direction

With five matches completed, we are 13% – or just over one-eighth – through the Premier League season. This is not a large enough sample size to draw many “set in stone” conclusions for any club, let alone a Crystal Palace side who have dealt with injury woes, playing with 10 men, and facing formidable sides & “bogey clubs” – all while navigating a new manager and tactical system. However, there are positive signs – both collectively & individually – that show the Eagles are trending in the right direction at the first international break of the season.

In Crystal Palace's opening three matches, they conceded 134 touches inside their penalty area - the most by any Premier League manager in their first three matches since Opta began recording the statistic in 2008/09. This figure was inflated partially by Fulham's 64 opposition-box touches during Palace's victory at Craven Cottage - the 6th-most box touches in a loss in over 10 Premier League seasons. After an EFL Cup tie saw another shocking defensive performance, where Championship side Middlesbrough produced 53 touches in the Crystal Palace penalty area, the Eagles began to tighten up in their defensive third. Through a mix of tactical tweaks and a growing understanding & execution of a new system, Palace's box touches conceded steadily declined over the next three matches: from 30 (vs. Ipswich - with 10 men for over 60 minutes), to 26 (vs. Lech Poznan in Europa League), to 17 (at Leeds United). Across all competitions, Palace nearly halved their average box touches conceded - going from 47 in their first four matches to 24 in their final three.

Crystal Palace's increased protection of their penalty area is not due to less defensive aggression, but rather to improved organization behind their aggression. Early in the season, one player stepping out or getting beat would trigger a chain reaction that left space exposed near goal. As players become more comfortable with their roles and responsibilities in Sage's system, the rotations are cleaner - allowing Palace to maintain an aggressive approach without leaving themselves exposed.

Tackling metrics corroborate this assertion. After five matches, no Premier League side has attempted more tackles, won more tackles, or had a higher tackle success rate than Crystal Palace. Additionally, Palace rank joint-fourth for possession won in the attacking third, further demonstrating effectiveness in their high-volume aggressive approach.

The aggressive out-of-possession approach yields benefits beyond the defensive phase, with Crystal Palace often winning possession in their attacking third against an unsettled back line. Rather than slow down & allow opponents to regain their defensive shape, Palace look to create chances with quick combination play.

The Premier League passing data demonstrates this well. Despite ranking 18th in average possession (43.5%), Palace are 10th in attempted passes, showing their ability to do more with less. The metrics are even more staggering when adjusted for possession, where Palace rank 4th in attempted passes per minute of possession (10.5) & 5th for completed passes (8.7). These quick passing combinations are not toothless, but have generated real threat, as the Eagles' 16 big chances created rank 5th in the Premier League.

Much of this rapid combination play has come from wide areas, with Palace's wingbacks combining with central midfield and the attacking trio to create passing triangles and make intelligent off-ball runs to open up defenses. Wingbacks are responsible for four of five league goals credited to Palace, have created nearly one-fifth of Palace's expected assists (18.8%), and have accounted for 35% of the Eagles' expected goals (xG) in Premier League play.

Expected goals on target (xGOT) is the "post-shot" equivalent of xG, which itself measures a shot's likelihood to score before the ball is kicked. Therefore, xGOT increasing from xG is a strong marker that shot placement has improved goal probability.

While Palace's xGOT value still sits below xG, the latest trend, again, shows promise. Palace have increased xGOT from its pre-shot equivalent in three of their past four matches, and have had higher xGOT than xG in four of seven matches this season across all competitions. In a small sample size, that percentage - 57% - nearly doubles last season's rate, where the Eagles improved upon xG in just 30% of matches.M

Crystal Palace's Spanish attacker has shown improved confidence to start the season, and this has yielded positive results - both in and out of possession. Defensively, Pino has been a catalyst for initiating the attack through his actions up the pitch, with strong ranks in both tackle success rate and high defensive actions per90. His exceptional work rate, coupled with efficiency - his 53% duel win-rate is in the 80th percentile amongst attackers - has led to opportunities near goal for both himself and teammates.

In possession, Pino has shown value in many aspects of the Palace attack. He has shown progressive ability - both in playing and receiving the pass, penetrative passing, chance generation, and can also slow the game down and create set piece opportunities by drawing fouls. The difference is palpable when watching Pino on the pitch. He no longer wishes to be a passenger during the match, but rather pops up wherever he is needed to receive, progress, and distribute.

With the Crystal Palace midfield duo sluggish to adapt to new positional demands under Pierre Sage's tactical system, the French manager decided to add a third midfielder on the pitch by placing Daichi Kamada into the right of Palace's front three. This has allowed Kamada to drop in to form a midfield trio out of possession when needed and gave the Palace spine much-needed reinforcement. This setup also created a positive knock-on effect - sliding Yeremy Pino central to pair with Jørgen Strand Larsen and provide an easier outlet to the Spaniard when transitioning to attack.

Due to Kamada's wide-ranging abilities, this change has not made Crystal Palace weaker in attack. In fact, one could easily argue the opposite: Kamada's inclusion in the front three has made Palace's attack stronger. Kamada leads the Premier League with three assists, and his deeper defensive role allows him to play more progressive and penetrative passes to teammates. He's done all this without sacrificing his off-ball abilities, as Kamada still has high percentile ranks amongst attacking midfielders in tackles (82nd), ball recoveries (72nd), and duel win rate (91st).

There is still work to be done in SE25 - this is not dismissive of that notion. Crystal Palace must continue to improve results to move away from being on "high alert" (a sentiment that nearly ALL non-"Big Six" clubs of the Premier League feel). However, early in the season, Pierre Sage is showing why he has the reputation of a proactive and tactically flexible manager. He has identified issues, implemented changes, and brought more stability and organization to his squad. This alone should give Palace supporters optimism for what the future will bring.