The data can tell us one thing, and the eye test another. Have Everton been lucky so far this season?
Everton's season is only five Premier League games in, but it's enough to give us a little idea of what's to potentially come in the future.
It's been a reasonable start to the campaign for the Toffees. Everton have picked two wins and three draws in the Premier League so far, going unbeaten in all competitions.
We've already assessed how the season has gone so far based on what it's looked like, the feeling around the club, and the young talent, but now it's time to dive deep into the data.
The data can offer us a little something to see if we're following along the trends that is expected in terms of producing chances and conceding chances. There is the obvious caveat that it is a small sample size, but it's still interesting to see whether the data matches up with what we're seeing.
Everton's season through data
According to Opta, Everton's expected points tally is 7.1, which would put them in 10th position in the Premier League table. In reality, Everton are actually seventh, suggesting we're slightly higher than we perhaps should be.
This lines up with what we're seeing. Everton are unbeaten and in a strong position, but the performances haven't blown us away. The win against Ipswich wasn't entirely convincing, while we had to snatch last-minute equalisers to draw against Manchester United and Bournemouth.
Everton's expected goals is 7.3 for the season while scoring six times, while we've conceded just three but have an expected goals against of 6.9. This means we're missing more chances than we should, while also being fortunate not to have conceded more goals.
The second point is a mixture of strong goalkeeping from Jordan Pickford, and the opposition missing some strong chances. As per FotMob, Pickford has prevented 1.5 goals this season, which suggests it's more likely the opposition are missing good chances rather than Pickford massively overperforming.
Opta actually predicts Everton to finish on around 53 points and in seventh place in the Premier League as it stands. They give us a 0.82% chance of winning the title, 16.07% chance of Champions League football, and 7.47% chance of Europa League. In terms of relegation, just a 5.37% chance.
One key method of chance creation has been through high turnovers. Everton have produced 11 shots from high turnovers in the Premier League this season, with no side managing more.
Everton don't press like a Bournemouth, for example, but they press with purpose, which has been pleasing to see.
In terms of what the next few months could look like, Everton do need to tighten up defensively. Although we've only conceded three, which is great, we've been fortunate not to have conceded more.
The opposition have converted just 4.35% of their shots, which is the second-lowest in the league. Despite that, we've conceded more xG than Leeds, Hull, Brentford, Forest, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester United.
Is that sustainable? Possibly not, and when we start to play against stronger sides, we're more likely to concede more goals. As mentioned, Everton have conceded just 4.35% of their shots, but Manchester City have scored 19.12% of their shots. Newcastle 18%, Brighton 15.96%, and Chelsea 13.89%.
To put it bluntly, Everton do need to improve if they want to remain in the top half of the Premier League. The Toffees need to become tighter at the back when against stronger sides, and start converting more chances.
Although Everton are underperforming in terms of converting chances, preventing them is the biggest issue we have right now. Creating a strong number of opportunities is a positive thing as we'll eventually start converting more regularly, but that same argument can be used in terms of the opposition, who have fortunately struggled to convert against us this season.
