The Data Behind Everton vs Ipswich: Positives To Take

There has been a lot of negativity surrounding the performance of Everton yesterday. 

It wasn’t the prettiest game of football by any stretch, but the reality is, we did enough to score at least two or three goals. Did Ipswich have chances? Of course, but how many were really clear cut?

Everton are currently unbeaten heading into October. That achievement deserves positivity. There has been plenty of time to write about Everton in a negative manner, and I’m sure that will be relevant again at some point down the line, but while things are going well, it’s a good opportunity to look at the positives. 

There were plenty of positives to take from the game against Ipswich, especially when looking at the data. Let's dive into some of the numbers.

xG is a stat that divides opinion, but it can paint pictures. Everton produced 2.24 expected goals against Ipswich, a strong figure considering Ipswich conceded less against Arsenal during the week, and less against Crystal Palace and Liverpool in the Premier League. 

The majority of that xG came in the first half too, when Ipswich had all 11 men on the pitch. In fact, Everton created more xG in the first half than Liverpool and Palace did throughout the whole game.

You also have to take into account the game state. The majority of the xG created came when we were already winning, so it wasn’t just racking up chances when chasing a game.

By far the most pleasing thing was the xG created from open play. Of the 2.24 xG created, 2.16 was from open play, with only 0.07 created from set-pieces. That’s a huge positive for a side who have been heavily reliant on set-pieces in the past. 

The one caveat to that data is Everton did have a lot of shots, so each shot averaged around 0.10 xG. 

xG can also be flawed, and I do think some of the xG given to some of the opportunities should have been higher. For example, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s chance only amounted to 0.20 xG, but I do think that should have been higher. It was actually the same as Thierno Barry’s first-half header that he missed, but I think Barry’s chance was significantly harder.

Anyway, it’s pleasing to see us create chances from open play. We also effectively scored from a set-piece before it was disallowed. 

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Ipswich had some big chances, there’s no doubt about it. They created 1.44 xG throughout, but 0.42 of that did come from one Leif Davis opportunity. Abdul Fatawu’s strike from inside his own half also amounted to 0.14 xG, so outside of that, only 0.88 xG was created.

Four of their seven second-half shots also came after 85 minutes, when it was a little backs-to-the-wall after we failed to find a second. On another day, Everton have already scored three goals by that point, and Ipswich would probably have gone for a bit of damage limitation. 

Forgetting the data for a second, Everton kept another clean sheet. Jordan Pickford made some crucial saves, and that’s what happens when you have a top-level goalkeeper between the sticks. 

Having options on the bench who can change a game is vital, and we’ve seen the benefits of that over the last few weeks already. Hayden Hackney and Jack Grealish made a significant impact against Manchester United, while Ainsley Maitland-Niles, of course, scored the winning goal. 

Against Ipswich, Dibling played just 24 minutes, but the impact was clear to see. It wasn’t working with Brennan Johnson, so Moyes was able to mix it up, and having fresh legs and differing profiles allows Everton to become more unpredictable.

Dibling created two chances, one of those being a big chances, produced three shots, and overall just looked a threat whenever he had the ball. The youngster is also really strong when it comes to keeping possession, even if it does lead to fans growing frustrated that he’s not taking players on. 

Overall, there’s always going to be positives to take from games, especially when you win, and I think this weekend is a good opportunity to focus on those heading into the international break.