Why Everton Must Somewhat Replicate 2-0 Defeat vs Arsenal

Saturday's 2-0 home defeat to Chelsea ended Everton's unbeaten start, and it was a poor afternoon. They managed six shots, their lowest league total since last December. Next up is a trip to the Emirates to face the champions, who are second on 18 points.

Everton don't need a new plan for it. They need the one they used in March.

They lost that game 2-0, but the scoreline doesn't tell the story. For 89 minutes, a patched-up Everton back line kept Arsenal quiet. Both goals came in the final minutes, one from an error and one after Everton had committed everyone forward.

If David Moyes can get the same performance with fewer mistakes, Everton can leave north London with something.

Arsenal ended the game against Everton with 2.70 xG, but that's far from the full picture. On paper, that looks like a real hammering from the Gunners, especially as they amassed 25 shots throughout the match. 

About 1.9 of Arsenal's 2.70 xG came from the two late goals. Their other 23 shots added up to roughly 0.8 xG, which works out to about 0.03 per shot. Arsenal had plenty of the ball and plenty of attempts, but Everton forced them into low-value efforts from bad angles, through crowded areas, or from distance.

Up until the 89th minute, Everton kept Arsenal at bay. Of course, a football match lasts longer than that and Everton should have remained tight until the final seconds, but it shows we can produce a performance that can frustrate the Gunners.

Leave out those two goals and Everton actually created more than Arsenal. Everton finished on 1.05 xG, which is a fairly strong score against a side that went on to lift the Premier League title.

What makes the performance more impressive is who wasn't playing. Everton went into the game without either of their first-choice centre-backs. James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite were both out, leaving Everton with Michael Keane and Jake O'Brien as their centre-backs. 

This also meant James Garner was at right-back, while we also had Dwight McNeil starting on the right-hand side of attack. 

Heading into this game, Everton should have stronger side, while Arsenal haven't improved drastically. The game against Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday could shape how their line-up looks, but it wouldn't be a surprise if their front four is fairly similar.

Noni Madueke and Bukayo Saka were the wingers, with Kai Havertz in attack, and there's a strong chance that's the same against Everton.

If a makeshift defence can hold the champions for 89 minutes, a first-choice one has no reason not to do the same. You wouldn't say Arsenal have drastically improved this season either. Nottingham Forest frustrated them for 80 minutes and could easily have nicked a point in Arsenal's last Premier League match.

Arsenal didn't break Everton down. Everton gave the game away in the last few minutes. Viktor Gyokeres' goal came from a simple cross into the box that should have been dealt with, but Jordan Pickford made an uncharacteristic error to give the Swedish striker the chance to score.

The second goal came after Everton had thrown everything forward, including Pickford, leading to Arsenal's xG being massively inflated. 

With Tarkowski and Branthwaite in the side, Everton should be able to defend their box even better than they did previously. Everton should also be able to add Jack Grealish into the side to help win fouls, get us up the pitch, and retain possession.

Arsenal could have Bruno Guimaraes added to their side from the previous game, but other than that, they haven't drastically improved. 

This isn't to say Everton should now go on to win the game, but we've already shown the blueprint on how to frustrated Arsenal away from home and still create a few opportunities. 

Many are negative heading into this game, understandably, but hopefully this has given you some slight hope and positivity.