How Alvaro Arbeloa has gone from the depths of despair to being the next big thing

It was only a few weeks ago that we were talking in pretty certain terms that Alvaro Arbeloa would be the first Premier League manager to be sacked.

Fulham had failed gravely in their early season efforts, losing their first three matches and picking up just two points from their first six.

Defeat to Ipswich in the match immediately after the international break seemingly made Arbeloa’s position untenable.

He had matches against Hull and Coventry coming up, but the way Fulham seemed incapable of holding on to a result, it was a sense of if, not when, Arbeloa got sacked.

But somehow, Fulham were able to win both of those matches, and even better, they were able to get a valuable point away at Aston Villa.

Football is a fickle sport; we all know that, but the manner in which Arbeloa has managed to turn things around at Craven Cottage is nothing short of extraordinary.

Fulham were the team to target in the first three matches of the season; anyone who watched the performance against Villa will certainly not be calling them that now.

The Cottagers were exceptional on that evening, and although John McGinn did miss a penalty, they will probably again wonder how they did not leave Villa Park with all three points.

After six Premier League matches, we were already comparing between Thomas Frank, Eddie Howe, Kieran McKenna and Vitor Pereira for who could take over from Arbeloa.

Just three matches later (ignoring the Carabao Cup defeat to Crystal Palace) and we are wondering just how high Fulham can actually finish this season.

But how has Arbeloa managed to do this?

The Spaniard has somehow managed to both tighten Fulham up at the back, which has happened directly after David Affengruber and Shea Charles have become regular members of the starting XI, and make them far more threatening in attack.

He came in with an ambitious but ultimately naive plan to have his full backs extremely high up field, with his centre backs very apart.

That did nothing but create serious problems from the very outset, as seen when Joao Pedro pounced on a loose ball after just 31 seconds as Fulham lost 3-2 to Chelsea.

After losing by the same scoreline at home to Crystal Palace, Arbeloa made a subtle but effective change there, which sees his full-backs stay much further back on average, meaning, with Sander Berge and Charles beginning to form a formidable midfield pairing, Fulham are far less susceptible to being caught on the break.

That change has seen Fulham go from conceding seven goals in their opening three matches to just four in their next six.

Only Leeds (eight) and Hull (10) have conceded fewer goals in the bottom half of the table than Fulham’s 11.

In attack too, Fulham have become more impressive.

On the face of it, their more savvy defensive approach actually limits them going forward, but despite Fulham scoring only five goals in their last six matches, they are creating chances at a premium.

Against Villa, they created four big chances and had 2.24 xG, against Hull, it was again four big chances; Ipswich and Manchester United were both three.

Fulham are creating chances in almost every single game and very often winning the battle on xG too.

So Arbeloa’s job, to coach a team who are creating chances and not conceding too many is being done well.

Gonzalo Garcia, who came to Fulham with much fanfare over the summer, has only managed to score once from an xG of almost four (3.98), while also missing as many as seven big chances.

That is of course, hugely disappointing, but again the chances are being created, and surely the goals will eventually come with it.

The football has gone from being almost embarrassing to up there with the very best in the Premier League to watch, and that is all on Arbeloa.

And, having been heavily questioned by this very writer earlier on in the season, Arbeloa is now being lauded for Fulham’s style.

Watch this space, as it could be a hugely exciting season for the Cottagers