Pre-match analysis: How can Fulham beat Hull?

Fulham are in absolute desperation - they need to win and they face a Hull team who are flying high.

The Cottagers sit at the very foot of the Premier League table, with just two points from their first six matches this season.

Compare that to Hull, who have picked up nine points, coming via two victories and three draws, only losing once, against Newcastle.

Alvaro Arbeloa comes into this game knowing it could well be his last in West London if his side do not come away with all three points.

The man opposite him in the dugout has said that Arbeloa has been unlucky, and to some extent that has been true, but that won’t matter one jot this weekend if Fulham fall to their fifth defeat in seven matches.

So the big question is, and hopefully one that Arbeloa knows the answer to - how can Fulham beat Hull?

This will be the big thing that Arbeloa will be drilling into his Fulham squad all week - play for the full 90 minutes.

Fulham have shipped goals in the final 15 minutes in four of their six Premier League matches thus far and that has cost them seven points.

With those points, we would be talking about this match as a mid-table clash and there would be no pressure whatsoever, but that is not the case now for Fulham.

They must pay full attention and ensure that no matter what lead they have or if the scores are tied, they manage to avoid conceding yet another late goal to cost them further important points.

At this stage of the season, we know that Hull are about and we know exactly how they will come to Craven Cottage.

They are a side built on a resolute defence, with a rigid 5-4-1 formation ensuring that they are hard to score against.

As a result, they have shipped only six goals so far this season, a total only the top three sides - Manchester City, Arsenal and Brighton can beat.

So Fulham will have to break down a low block; they will need to be patient and they will need to take their chances when they do inevitably come.

Those are normally tough enough things to do, let alone when pressure is mounting on both your status in the Premier League and on your manager’s job.

Whatever your thoughts are on expected goals (xG), Fulham are a long way off where they should be according to those charts.

And that also applies to their opponents on Saturday.

Fulham, according to FotMob’s xG table, should be in 14th place in the Premier League table and should have won two matches by now.

Only Nottingham Forest and Sunderland have underperformed according to xG as much as Fulham, who have scored only six goals but should have scored 10, according to the model.

Conversely, Hull have conceded only six, but should have conceded nine in terms of xG, which would have them in 17th in the table and not in eighth.

Essentially, Fulham have been quite unlucky, and Hull have been lucky; can that change on Saturday?

Only time will tell, but Fulham must ride their luck and make sure to be switched on at both ends of the pitch.