The numbers behind Morgan Gibbs-White's England snub offer a get-out for Thomas Tuchel, but that does not mean the decision makes sense.
Should Morgan Gibbs-White have been included in Thomas Tuchel's England squad for the World Cup?
News that Thomas Tuchel has overlooked Morgan Gibbs-White for his England World Cup squad is no longer new, but it remains just as shocking. But do the underlying numbers paint a more balanced equation?
Gibbs-White is, undoubtedly, one of the country’s most in-form creative players. Able to carve something from nothing, he has so often been there when Forest have needed him most this season.
From his winning goal against Porto in the Europa League quarterfinals to his hat-trick, which secured a vital three points over Nottingham Forest's relegation rivals, Burnley, he has never shied away from responsibility.
The 26-year-old would have felt powerless watching on as Ebereche Eze and Noni Madueke were benched in Arsenal’s Champions League final defeat, despite the duo making the Three Lions’ cut ahead of him.
With 25 goal involvements in all competitions over the course of the season, there is little more that Gibbs-White could have done to stake his claim for a place on the plane.
Shortly after the City Ground serenaded Tuchel on the final day of the Premier League season, blasting Gibbs-White’s omission with some choice words, Forest boss Vitor Pereira had his say on the decision.
Having championed the six-time England international’s cause for a spot in the squad for weeks, Pereira revealed his disappointment. “We had a conversation,” Pereira said.
Nottingham Forest boss Vitor Pereira during a press conference. (Credit: Action Images via Reuters)“We can do everything on the pitch to compete, but the end result we can’t control. But I think he did everything to be in the national team.”
Positionally, Gibbs-White’s most likely route to the World Cup would have been an inclusion in place of Eze.
On paper, the former Crystal Palace man has struggled for form at Arsenal and, despite occasional moments in the spotlight, the 27-year-old has failed to hit the heights many had expected of him.
So how did he sneak into Tuchel’s England squad?
Eze played more than 1,200 minutes fewer than Gibbs-White in the Premier League this season, so matching the Forest man’s output was never going to be realistic.
But despite playing an equivalent of more than 13 fewer league games this season, Eze has just one less key pass than Gibbs-White. On average, he loses possession more than half as many times as Gibbs-White’s 11.8 times per 90 minutes played too.
Even big chances missed favour the former Crystal Palace man, who has missed just two, compared to Gibbs-White’s 10.
But while the underlying numbers offer some sort of reason for why Tuchel has favoured Eze, they hardly tell the full story. You cannot buy form in football, and one player offers that more than most who are on the plane.
The truth is, no matter how hard you try, there is no real justification for Gibbs-White’s snub. He should have been at the World Cup.
To draw something of a silver lining, it means that, for Forest, he will be well rested ahead of the new season, transfer interest dependent, and can once again prove the ludicrousness of the decision to the world.
But if England are sent packing early, Tuchel will be left red-faced by a number of selection decisions, none more so than his omission of Gibbs-White.
