After striking gold with Shane Smith, the White Sox are once again chasing Rule 5 upside — but the roster math suggests makes it hard to see a path for this year's selections.
There’s no better example of how valuable a Rule 5 Draft pick can be than what Shane Smith did with the Chicago White Sox in 2025.
Despite limited experience above Double-A and being left off the 40-man roster by the Milwaukee Brewers, the 25-year-old right-hander delivered a 3.81 ERA across 146.1 innings last season. That performance was worth 2.2 fWAR, earned him a few Rookie of the Year votes, and culminated in an All-Star selection — making Smith the first Rule 5–selected pitcher in MLB history to reach the All-Star Game as a rookie.
Smith now stands as a pillar of the White Sox rebuild: a young, controllable, frontline starting pitcher the organization can build around long term — all from a Rule 5 pick.
That’s the upside if you get these selections right. And because the White Sox know this better than anyone, they’re trying to replicate that success again in 2026.
It was no surprise to see Chicago make a Rule 5 pick with the second overall selection at the Winter Meetings. What did catch me off guard was that they went back to the well again in the second round.
The White Sox were the only team to make two selections in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft, adding right-handed pitchers Jedixson Paez and Alexander Alberto — prospects ranked No. 15 and No. 21 in the organization, respectively.
They bring very different profiles. Paez projects more as a long-term starter, with elite control as his calling card. Alberto, meanwhile, is very much a reliever. He's a towering 6-foot-8 right-hander whose fastball touches 101 mph. In theory, both have paths to contributing in Chicago in 2026 and beyond.
And yet — as I start looking ahead to spring training, roster cuts, and Opening Day — it’s hard to see a world where both pitchers make the team.
One of them — if not both — feels bound to be squeezed out.
If that happens, each would be subject to waivers and offered back to their original organization. That’s a reality White Sox fans may need to prepare for.
Let’s walk through the roster math.
On a standard 26-man roster, teams typically carry 13 pitchers, with eight of those slots going to the bullpen. Under Will Venable, the White Sox consistently kept three left-handed relievers on the roster: one long reliever (Tyler Alexander in 2025), one middle-inning arm (Brandon Eisert in 2025), and one left-on-left specialist (Fraser Ellard or Cam Booser in 2025).
If Chicago follows that same structure in 2026, that leaves just five bullpen spots for right-handed relievers — and both Paez and Alberto are right-handed.
From there, the picture tightens quickly. Mike Vasil, Grant Taylor, and Jordan Leasure all appear to be roster locks. That leaves two spots.
And that’s before accounting for external additions.
Chris Getz has been clear all offseason: the White Sox want to add bullpen help. Ideally, they’re targeting a veteran with high-leverage experience — not necessarily a proven closer, but someone capable of handling late innings.
So far, the only relief addition has been Sean Newcomb, a left-handed long reliever who may get an opportunity to stretch out as a starter when camp opens at Camelback Ranch. Still, it’s hard to believe Chicago is done.
If I had to guess, another experienced right-hander is coming — someone who can serve as a fallback closer if Leasure struggles early.
At that point, you’re down to one bullpen spot for two Rule 5 arms.
For Paez in particular, the path is especially narrow. He’s just 21 years old — compared to Alberto’s 24 — and the White Sox are already flush with multi-inning options. Vasil gave the club over 100 innings in 2025. Grant Taylor is expected to operate in a hybrid, multi-inning role. Newcomb likely settles into the long-relief role Tyler Alexander once filled.
Is the final bullpen spot really going to a fourth long-relief option?
Can the White Sox justify keeping a 21-year-old — or even a 24-year-old — with no experience above High-A on the roster over more MLB-ready options like Wikelman González, or Prelander Berroa once he returns from Tommy John surgery?
The deeper I dig into the roster math, the more it feels like Chicago may ultimately lose at least one of its Rule 5 selections from this draft — Paez in particular.
There is a scenario where Alberto sticks. When you have a 101-mph fastball with ride that grades as a 70 — “plus-plus” on the 20-80 scouting scale — you can miss bats at any level. Chicago could shelter him for a season, limiting his exposure to low-leverage situations while he learns what it takes to survive at the MLB level.
Paez, on the other hand, is a much harder puzzle to solve.
By the time spring training rolls around, the picture will be clearer. We’ll know how many veterans the White Sox add, who arrives healthy, and how the bullpen shakes out.
But as things stand right now, I wouldn’t get my hopes up about seeing either Paez or Alberto play a meaningful role on the 2026 White Sox roster.