Kansas City’s interest in Jarren Duran highlights Boston’s looming decision on an overcrowded outfield.
On Friday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan included this nugget in his story about Maikel Garcia’s five-year extension with the Royals that Red Sox fans should not be surprised to hear:
“The Royals have been active on the trade market too, looking to acquire another outfielder. They have discussed acquiring Jarren Duran from the Boston Red Sox and inquired about pitcher MacKenzie Gore and infielder CJ Abrams from the Washington Nationals, according to sources. Though the talks haven't yielded a deal, the Royals' efforts to improve on an 82-80 season are clear.”
At this point in the offseason, seeing Duran’s name pop up in trade talks has become old hack, as the 29-year-old has long been thought to be the odd man out as Boston looks to unclog a position group with too many bodies and not enough spots in the starting lineup.
When you have players like Rookie of the Year finalist Roman Anthony, Gold Glove winner Ceddanne Rafaela, and two-time defending Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu in your clubhouse, you’re going to want to do everything in your power to get those bats and gloves in your starting nine as much as possible. While Duran might give you a more consistent bat than someone like Rafaela, his value as arguably the best center fielder in all of baseball outweighs the inconsistent highs Duran can provide when he’s right at the plate.
Even though the need for trading Duran seems more than obvious given the current state of the roster, there is one complicating factor that could be at play:
The internal value the Red Sox have placed on the 2024 All-Star Game MVP.
May 10, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) at bat in the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. (Peter Aiken/Imagn Images)Here’s what Passan and Kiley McDaniel wrote on December 2 about Duran in their top 25 rankings for players that could be traded this offseason:
“The buzz: The Red Sox are valuing Duran more like the seven-win player of 2024 than his 4-win version in 2025. Either way, his addition can instantaneously make a team better, and Boston can hold out for a big return because the Red Sox don't have to deal him. At some point, though, the Red Sox will have to move Duran or Wilyer Abreu. Keeping full-time-quality players for less than full-time roles rarely works out well.
“The scouting report: Duran has elite bat speed and foot speed, along with a good arm, so his physical tools can lead to a return to something like his star performance from 2024. His foot speed pays off in elite baserunning value, ranking third in baseball over the past three seasons combined at +23 runs. His true talent level seems quite close to his 2025 production, which is still one of the top 35 position players in the sport. Duran has a ton of trade value because he's still in his 20s and has three years of control.
“Predicted chance of getting traded: 50%
“Team fits: Tigers, Royals, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Mets, Reds, Diamondbacks”
The key point here is the esteem the Red Sox are holding Duran in.
Just because he was an almost nine-win player that season (8.7 WAR, to be exact), doesn’t mean they or any other team should expect him to reach those heights again at any point in his career. Here’s the WAR breakdown across his five seasons:
- 2021: -0.6 across 33 games and 112 plate appearances
- 2022: -0.2 across 58 games and 204 plate appearances
- 2023: 2.2 across 102 games and 362 plate appearances
- 2024: 8.7 across 160 games and 735 plate appearances
- 2025: 4.7 across 157 games and 696 plate appearances
While still an almost five-win player in 2025, it’s a far cry from his outlier season now two years ago.
If the Red Sox are serious about wanting to unclog the log jam that is their outfield, this is the guy to move. They need to take real stock in who he is, and get good value back - especially in the wake of whiffing on both Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso. Whether it’s an answer at first base or some more depth on the pitching staff - whatever it is, they cannot go into 2026 with the outfield depth chart looking the way it does at the moment.
Unless, of course, Duran is willing to be a depth piece. If that’s the case, he would be overqualified to do so, and the team would be crazy not to keep him if they feel like it works within their self-imposed financial structure.
But with the funky restructuring Boston did with Duran’s contract in November, it became clear that the organization is preparing him to be a piece that could move ahead of spring training.
May 10, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) slides past Kansas City Royals catcher Freddy Fermin (34) at home plate to score a run in the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. (Peter Aiken/Imagn Images)If Duran isn’t the one that’s moved, there is also a strong market for Abreu, who Passan and McDaniel had ranked 13th on their list.
“Abreu is three years younger than Duran, has won back-to-back Gold Gloves in right field and comes with four years of club control, which makes the high asking price understandable,” they wrote.
They went on to say that Abreu is heading into his age-27 season, which is typically the year where players peak in the majors. They said the Tigers, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Mets, Royals and Astros would all be fits for a potential landing spots for the right fielder.
For those keeping score at home, the Tigers, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Mets and Royals are listed as fits for both Duran and Abreu.
One of these guys is getting moved. It’s just a matter of time.
Boston would be smart to take some truth serum as it relates to Duran, and move him for a worthy package. Between him and Abreu, I’m leaning with the guy with an elite glove and a higher upside in the power-hitting department.
Should also be noted that Triston Casas was also listed in the “15 more that could move” section at the end of their piece on December 2.
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Tom Carroll is a contributor for Roundtable, with boots-on-the-ground coverage of all things Boston sports. He's a senior digital content producer for WEEI.com, and a native of Lincoln, RI.