Fernando Alonso entered 2026 as a projected contender, but early forecasts now place him behind Sergio Pérez and Cadillac. Despite the arrival of Adrian Newey and Honda power, preseason struggles have pushed Aston Martin toward the back in expert rankings.
Although Fernando Alonso was touted as one of the possible contenders for the upcoming championship, experts have already placed him below Cadillac and Sergio Pérez in terms of performance.
With the arrival of Adrian Newey and the Honda engine that gave Max Verstappen four world championships, Aston Martin was expected to take a step forward on the grid. However, preseason testing has shown something different, and the two-time champion's multiple problems have had an effect on the experts' predictions. For example, SkySports believes that Cadillac will be ahead of Aston Martin in 2026.
They place Alonso's team at the bottom of the grid, with Cadillac, Williams, and Audi ahead. At the other end of the spectrum, Mercedes remains in the lead, with McLaren behind, ahead of Ferrari, Red Bull, and Alpine.
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Hype vs. Reality in 2026
Preseason projections are notoriously volatile, but perception matters in Formula 1 — especially in a regulation reset year. Aston Martin’s ambitious rebuild, fueled by Newey’s technical genius and a proven Honda partnership, was supposed to signal a leap forward. Instead, early testing concerns have shifted the narrative from breakthrough to rebuilding. Meanwhile, Cadillac’s aggressive entry and Pérez’s experience are earning unexpected respect in expert circles.
That said, writing off Alonso would be premature. Few drivers in modern F1 history have demonstrated his adaptability across eras of technical upheaval. Regulation overhauls often reward teams that unlock performance windows later in development, not necessarily those who shine in February.
The real verdict will come under race conditions, not in preseason simulations. If Aston Martin finds answers quickly, today’s rankings could look dramatically different by midseason. But if early indicators hold, 2026 may redefine the competitive order far more aggressively than anyone anticipated.
What happened to Checo Pérez at Red Bull?
When his career seemed to be over, Pérez was picked up by Red Bull in late 2020 as a replacement for Alexander Albon. The Mexican drove for the Milton Keynes team for four seasons, winning five Grand Prix races and two constructors' titles during that time.
However, his form was below average, especially in 2024: he finished eighth in the drivers' standings, while his teammate Max Verstappen was crowned champion with two races and one sprint to go. Pérez also caused more damage than any other driver, and Red Bull missed out on tens of millions in prize money by finishing third in the constructors' championship.
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