Charles Schwab Picks: Åberg, MacIntyre, Smalley

The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club isn’t built for fake contenders.

This place exposes loose drivers, shaky wedges and cold putters in a hurry, which is why this week’s PGA TOUR betting board is so fascinating.

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With Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy sitting out, Ludvig Åberg enters as the favorite at +1000.

That number won’t shock anyone. Åberg has been electric this season, stacking six top-eight finishes in his last seven starts.

Even more impressive, he’s done much of it while leaving shots on the greens.

At the PGA Championship, Åberg finished T4 despite struggling with the putter.

At the Truist Championship, he was again elite tee-to-green and still landed inside the top eight while losing strokes putting.

That’s terrifying for the rest of the field. If the flat stick wakes up at Colonial, he can absolutely win.

Colonial is a par-70, 7,289-yard test that rewards control more than chaos.

The fairways are framed by trees, the doglegs force decisions and the greens are small enough to punish sloppy iron play.

It’s also one of the tougher off-the-tee courses on the regular PGA TOUR schedule, which makes tee-to-green form especially important.

That’s where Åberg pops again. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

J.J. Spaun, Ben Kohles, Keith Mitchell, Alex Smalley and Sudarshan Yellamarju also rate highly in that category, but Åberg’s ceiling is different.

Robert MacIntyre is another name worth circling, especially in the first-round leader market at +4300.

He’s been uneven lately, missing the cut at the PGA Championship and failing to crack the top 40 in his last four starts.

Still, the statistical fit is there. Over his last 20 opening rounds, MacIntyre ranks third in this field in SG: Total and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green.

On a course where early precision matters, that’s enough to make him dangerous.

Then there’s Alex Smalley, who might be the best value on the board at +3500. Smalley has been trending hard, with strong recent finishes at the PGA Championship, Valero Texas Open, Zurich Classic and Cadillac Championship.

He’s averaging more than 300 yards off the tee while finding roughly 62 percent of fairways, and his putter has been scorching.

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At Colonial, that combination travels. Åberg is the obvious threat. MacIntyre is the Thursday chaos play.

But Smalley? He might be the live dog everybody sees too late.

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