A surging pitching staff and unexpected winning streak are boosting morale in Anaheim, but this late-season success threatens to derail the Halos' odds for a top draft pick.
After last night’s 18-3 triumph over the divisional rival Houston Astros, the Los Angeles Angels are riding the high of their best performance all season. Though a domination of Houston feels great, it brings up the question of why the Angels have been looking like a much better team as of late.
The season is virtually already over for the Halos, who have been out of the postseason race for some time now. It led to a hard sell-off at the trade deadline, with real impact players being sent away in favor of prospects.
Despite this, the Angels have won six of their last ten with two series wins against divisional opponents. Since the August 3 trade deadline, the Angels have been a .500 ball club – a stark difference from their .384 winning percentage before that mark.
So, what has changed for the Angels in August? The one big real change that was made was the firing of the pitching coach, bullpen coach, and assistant pitching coach on August 11. Since then, the Angels have allowed more than three runs in a single game.
Despite clearing out their pitching staff and trading away several arms, the Angels have been a much better team on the mound as of late. In the last 15 days, the Angels’ 3.21 ERA ranks fourth in the major leagues compared to a 22nd-ranked 4.34 ERA on the season as a whole.
The pitching has been great for the Halos, but it’s unfortunately coming at the wrong time. The season is already a wash for the Angels, with the only question being who will finish in last place in the American League West.
This recent stretch may be fun and even optimistic to watch, but it could actually hurt the club down the line. With the MLB’s draft lottery implementation a few years ago, the Angels’ final placement in the standings has big implications.
The bottom three teams in the league each receive a 19.21% chance at getting the No. 1 overall selection in the 2027 draft. They also receive an 88% chance of falling in some place inside the top six. To put it simply – finishing somewhere in the bottom three records is vital in assuring a high selection in the draft.
The Halos had that locked down just a few weeks ago, but their recent play now threatens their odds. Not only have the Athletics dipped below them in the standings, but the Colorado Rockies now sit half a game below the Halos in the standings. Now, the Angels sit just barely inside the pivotal bottom three.
Luckily for the Angels, the Kansas City Royals, the fourth-worst team in baseball, have also been worsening their chances. Having won six of their last ten, including a 2-1 series win against the Angels, the Royals have a 55-74 record. That puts them 3.5 games above the Halos’ 51-77 record.
The Angels remain in that desired bottom-three tier for now, but their recent play puts that in jeopardy. Of course, the players are going to try to get wins each and every night, but their success at doing so has some fans a little bit on the nervous side.
Just for fun, I ran the Tankathon lottery simulator five times with the current standings to see where the Angels landed. The results: No. 2 overall, No. 4 overall, No. 5, No. 6, and No. 2 again. Hopefully the Halos find more luck when the real lottery takes place in December.
