After getting to the World Series in 2025, the Jays had big expectations for 2026, and thus far, they haven't materialized.
After dropping two-of-three against the San Diego Padres, the Toronto Blue Jays enter the All-Star break at 45-51 and in last place in the American League East.
However, because of the mediocrity of the American League, they are just 2.5 games back of the third and final wild card spot. As the Aug. 3 trade deadline nears, it's unclear what the Blue Jays will do.
They have hundreds of millions of dollars invested in this roster, so seeing them make some modest deadline buys is not out of the question, however, they could control the market if they elected to sell. Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, Shane Bieber and George Springer could all be valuable trade commodities.
As Ernie Clement, Louis Varland, and Dylan Cease head to Philadelphia for the All-Star Game, let's take a deeper look at the Jays at the break.
The basics
Record: 45-51
Standings: Last place, American League East. 2.5 games back of final wild card spot.
Fangraphs playoff odds: 20.3 percent (19.8 percent wild card)
Remaining strength of schedule: 11th-hardest (.501 opponents win percentage)
Most pleasant surprise
Kazuma Okamoto.
Look, when you're signed to a four-year deal worth $60 million, you're expected to produce. That said, it's never a guarantee when a player comes over from Japan how they will perform against pitchers they've never heard of and velocity they've never seen.
But Okamoto has performed extremely well, hitting 22 home runs, which ties Shohei Ohtani for the most-ever by a Japanese born rookie. He has a 111 OPS+ and has helped carry the middle of the order in the wake of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s power outage.
Honorable mention: Louis Varland's emergence as closer. Ernie Clement's ability to be an everyday player again in the wake of letting Bo Bichette go. Spencer Miles from the Rule-5 Draft has excelled in multiple roles.
Biggest disappointment
Guerrero Jr.
It's hard to say this, considering he's the face of the franchise and the main driver behind last year's World Series trip, but it's reality.
He's hitting .262 with just six home runs and 41 RBIs, and he's carrying an OPS+ of just 93, suggesting he's been a below-average player.
While he's not solely responsible for the team's struggles, if he had 10 home runs, how different do things look? What if he had 15 or 20? The chances are, in this version of the AL, it would be significantly better for the Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays first basemen Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) hits a three-run home run during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. David Frerker-Imagn ImagesHonorable mention: Anthony Santander, who has yet to play this season after an injury. That five-year deal is looking worse off by the day.
How big a story are injuries?
Very. Now, every team is dealing with something, and they can't be used as a sole excuse for the Jays performance, but Toronto seems to have been hit harder than most.
On the pitching side: Bowden Francis, the team's top depth starting option, is out for the season. Cody Ponce, signed to a three-year deal this offseason, made just one start before going down with a season-ending injury.
On top of that, Max Scherzer, Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber have all missed time with injury, with the injuries getting so bad that Miles has to had to help keep things together - and the team has utilized multiple openers and long men throughout the year.
On the offensive side of things? Addison Barger has missed most of the season, while Santander has missed the entire campaign. Alejandro Kirk and Varsho have also spent time on the injured list.
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