With October looming, the Milwaukee Brewers must weigh recent struggles against rising upside to solidify a four-man staff behind Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson for a deep postseason run.
The Milwaukee Brewers are close enough to clinching a postseason berth that their October pitching plans have become a legitimate discussion.
The first question is how the starting rotation will be structured.
Postseason rosters contain 26 players. Teams can replace an injured player during a round with approval from the commissioner’s office, although that player cannot return during the same round.
Two spots up for grabs
Milwaukee would need four starters for both the National League Division Series and National League Championship Series, barring the use of bullpen games. In both rounds, the first four games are scheduled within five days.
Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson are the two clear choices to start postseason games.
After them, the situation becomes considerably less certain.
Brandon Sproat’s difficult outing Wednesday night (four earned runs allowed on no hits with four walks a strikeout in 1.1 innings against the Chicago Cubs) appears to have removed him from serious consideration for the remainder of the season. He was optioned Thursday morning.
That leaves four healthy pitchers currently with Milwaukee who could realistically fill postseason rotation spots.
Dustin May is 1-2 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 23.1 innings over six starts with the Brewers.
Robert Gasser has a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine innings across his last two starts, both against the Cubs.
Shane Drohan has a 6.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 26.1 innings over his last six appearances (five starts).
Kyle Harrison is 0-2 with a 16.48 ERA and 3.52 WHIP in 7.1 innings across his last two starts.
Having three of four candidates for the third rotation spot carrying recent ERAs above 6.15 creates an obvious problem.
Harrison looks especially difficult to trust at the moment. Even during better outings earlier in August, he regularly struggled with velocity and command.
Drohan may fit better as a multi-inning reliever. He has provided valuable innings as a starter this season, but has clearly been more effective out of the bullpen.
May remains difficult to evaluate.
He allowed three runs in 13 innings over his first two Brewers starts against the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres before surrendering seven runs in two innings against the Seattle Mariners.
May then took a line drive off his back on the first pitch against the New York Mets and exited early.
His next two outings against the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds were also shaky. He failed to complete five innings in either start and allowed six runs in eight combined innings.
May has looked capable of starting postseason games at different points, but his recent form does not support that role.
He also has limited bullpen experience, making only 14 relief appearances in his career. Twelve came in 2019 and 2020 when he was beginning his MLB career with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Gasser’s overall numbers are 4-5 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 91.1 innings over 18 appearances (17 starts), but his recent direction is encouraging and his velocity has increased.
Gasser’s upside
Among the available options, Gasser has looked the strongest recently.
Gasser works with composure, changes speeds effectively and can keep hitters from sitting on one pitch. His ability to locate and disrupt timing becomes particularly valuable in short series where opponents quickly adjust.
He does not need to overpower every hitter to be effective. Instead, he can sequence pitches, attack different parts of the strike zone and avoid allowing one mistake to turn into a larger inning.
That gives him a chance to survive difficult moments and keep Milwaukee close even when his best stuff is not completely available.
For now, Misiorowski and Henderson appear positioned as the first two starters, with Gasser and May behind them.
The latter two, however, would likely enter October with extremely short leashes.
