One game separates three National League powerhouses battling for postseason seeding. Analyze the tiebreaker advantages and strength of schedule as Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Diego sprint toward October.
The Chicago Cubs will almost certainly be headed back to the postseason.
The Cubs have a 99.9% chance on FanGraphs of making the playoffs. They have a five-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks (80-73) for a Wild Card spot, and the North Siders also have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. That means Arizona will have to make up six games in the win column to overtake Chicago.
That’s highly unlikely to happen with only nine games left in the regular season.
The Cubs are obviously in a good spot to play meaningful baseball in October. Although they couldn’t take down the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central division, Chicago will be a Wild Card team in the postseason for the second consecutive year.
However, which seed the Cubs will finish at still remains to be seen.
The North Siders currently own the top Wild Card spot in the National League. They have the same record as the Philadelphia Phillies (85-68), but since the Cubs won the season series, they technically have the better seed right now.
The gap between the Cubs, Phillies, and San Diego Padres is so tight in that NL Wild Card race. The Cubs and Phillies are tied, while the Padres (84-69) are just one game back of both of those teams with nine games to play.
Anything can happen down the stretch. Each of these teams could earn that top Wild Card spot and change up the Wild Card Round matchups. The good news is that the Cubs have the tiebreaker over both the Phillies and Padres, so that could make a huge difference in terms of seeding when it’s all said and done.
But will the Cubs actually earn that top Wild Card spot?
Here’s a look at the schedules for all three of those teams in the final 10 days of the regular season.
Cubs:
9/18: @Reds
9/19:@Reds
9/20: @Reds
9/22: vs. Marlins
9/23: vs. Marlins
9/24: vs. Marlins
9/25: @Red Sox
9/26: @Red Sox
9/27: @Red Sox
Phillies:
9/18: @Mets
9/19: @Mets
9/20: @Mets
9/22: vs. Brewers
9/23: vs. Brewers
9/24: vs. Brewers
9/25: vs. Rays
9/26: vs. Rays
9/27: vs. Rays
Padres:
9/18: vs. Marlins
9/19: vs. Marlins
9/20: vs. Marlins
9/22: @ Dodgers
9/23: @ Dodgers
9/24: @ Dodgers
9/25: vs. Diamondbacks
9/26: vs. Diamondbacks
9/27: vs. Diamondbacks
The Cubs definitely have the easiest remaining schedule over those two other teams. They’ll play only one team above .500 (Red Sox) in their final three series and just won 2-of-3 games against the Marlins earlier this month.
The Phillies have the toughest remaining schedule of those Wild Card teams. They have to play the two best teams in baseball in the Brewers and Rays in back-to-back series to end the regular season.
The Padres will also play two teams above .500 over the next 10 days. A three-game series against the Dodgers and then a three-game series against a Diamondbacks team that could still be alive in the Wild Card race in the final series is a tough back-to-back series.
The Cubs control their own destiny for the top Wild Card spot. If they go 6-3 or 7-2 in their final nine games, there’s a good chance they host a playoff series at Wrigley Field.
