Preseason betting odds project the Chicago Cubs as the top team in the NL Central for 2026. But where do they stack up to the rest of Major League Baseball?
There were two clear, big-picture goals for the Chicago Cubs this offseason.
First: build a team good enough to outpace the Milwaukee Brewers and reclaim the NL Central throne.
Second: build a team capable of taking down the Los Angeles Dodgers and winning the World Series.
Objectives that everyone can get behind, and tet these are the hardest kinds of goals to chase. Because you don’t truly know whether you’ve succeeded or failed until it’s too late and your season is over.
There were plenty of arguments that the Cubs were better on paper than Milwaukee in 2025 — and early in the season, they were. It wasn’t until a mid-summer hot streak that the Brewers surged into first place, while the Cubs were hit hard by injuries to key players.
Then came the NLDS matchup between the two rivals — a reminder that while Milwaukee may have lacked high-end talent, they were still the more complete team.
Unacceptable.
Fortunately, the early indication from the betting market suggests the Cubs are positioned to flip that script in 2026. Chicago is projected to be better than the Brewers and return to the top of the NL Central standings for the first time since 2020.
The Cubs’ last division title in a full 162-game season came in 2017. Nearly a decade ago.
Once again — unacceptable.
FanDuel Sportsbook recently released win total over/unders for every MLB team. The Cubs came in at a respectable 88.5 wins, but that number still leads the division.
Milwaukee sits at 85.5, followed by the Cincinnati Reds at 81.5, the Pittsburgh Pirates at 74.5, and a rebuilding St. Louis Cardinals club at 71.5.
At first glance, 88.5 might not feel all that inspiring. But for a preseason betting market — which tends to be conservative by nature — it’s a strong projection.
That total puts the Cubs in the same tier as the New York Mets and the defending AL champion Toronto Blue Jays.
They’re also right in the same range as the Atlanta Braves (89.5), New York Yankees (91.5), Philadelphia Phillies (90.5), and Seattle Mariners (89.5). The only true outlier is the Dodgers, sitting at a staggering 104.5 wins.
And I don’t subscribe to the idea that the Cubs are that far behind Los Angeles.
If you take the 2025 fWAR totals of each team’s top nine position players, top five starting pitchers, and top eight relievers heading into 2026, the Cubs check in at 49.2 — while the Dodgers sit at 49.3.
That’s not a 16-game gap.
Do with that what you will. But it says a lot about what the Cubs have done this offseason — and why fans are justified in feeling optimistic about the outlook for 2026.
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