The Cubs are running out of time in the NL Central race and now face a steep uphill climb to catch the Brewers with 33 games remaining.
It was just over a week ago that the Chicago Cubs seemed to have a legitimate chance in the NL Central. But after losing a series to the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field and dropping the first game in Seattle on Friday night, Chicago has now put itself behind the eight ball, backing itself into a corner that it may not be able to fight out of.
As the Brewers host the Atlanta Braves over the weekend and the Cubs prepare for a Saturday date with the Seattle Mariners and baseball's top pitching prospect, Kade Anderson, Chicago is 6.5 games out in the NL Central with a 74-55 record.
With only 33 games left to play in the 2026 season, scenarios in which the Cubs win the division are starting to feel a bit far-fetched.
With the Brewers sitting at 81-49, expecting them to play below .500 the rest of the way is probably an unrealistic hope. But even if Milwaukee were to go 15-17 in its final 33 games, the Cubs would still need to go 22-11 just to tie the Brewers. And in the case of a tie, Milwaukee currently has the advantage.
It goes without saying that the head-to-head matchups between the Cubs and Brewers will be crucial the rest of the way.
But let's make things very clear. The Cubs don't just need to win a majority of those seven remaining head-to-head matchups. They need to dominate, going 5-2, if not 6-1, against the Brewers in the two outstanding series.
A 5-2 record would obviously make up three games in the standings, but it would also give the Cubs the tiebreaker advantage with a season series win. The Cubs are 2-4 against the Brewers so far this season and need to reach that seven-win mark to secure the tiebreaker.
That's the non-negotiable. If the Cubs go 4-3 against the Brewers in their seven remaining games, for example, they'd only make up one game in the standings. That would leave the Cubs needing to make up seven full games over the other 27, which requires the Brewers to scuffle and Chicago to play nearly perfect baseball over the final month of the season.
This is what happens when you don't take care of business against inferior opponents. You lose a game in extra innings against the Mariners on Friday night. You lose a series to the St. Louis Cardinals. And now the division is starting to get further and further out of reach.
The Cubs are fortunate to have secured two comeback victories in walk-off fashion against the White Sox earlier this week, or else the NL Central would have already been gift-wrapped to the Brewers. But the objective the rest of the way should remain clear. You can't lose any more ground while playing teams worse than you, and you need to dominate the Brewers in the seven head-to-head matchups remaining.
That remains the only path for the Cubs to win the NL Central in 2026.
