History Proves Chicago Cubs Can Still Win the NL Central

While the Chicago Cubs are currently holding a playoff spot and should rather comfortably make it to the postseason in 2026, there's still a lot to play for the rest of the way this year.

Making the playoffs shouldn't be the goal. Winning the World Series is the ultimate mission, and falling short of that would be a failure for the Cubs in 2026. The first step in that journey is, of course, making the playoffs, but more specifically, winning the NL Central.

The National League playoff picture is a gauntlet, and if winning the division earns the Cubs a first round bye straight to the NLDS, then it is of the utmost importance. But that's much easier said than done. The Milwaukee Brewers are 74-45, currently sitting with the best record in Major League Baseball.

Despite the fact that the Cubs are knocking on the door of being 20 games above .500, they remain 5.0 games back in the division with plenty of ground to make up.

The Cubs have just 43 games remaining on their schedule, and it might feel like they're running out of time to make up ground on the Brewers. Like the NL Central might already be out of reach. But all we have to do is look back at recent Chicago Cubs history to see that the division title is still very much up for grabs.

Let's take it back to August 28, 2018. The Chicago Cubs were sitting with a record of 78-53, in first place in the NL Central, with three teams vying for a playoff position. The Brewers found themselves at 73-60, in third place behind both the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, and 6.0 games back of first.

That 2018 Brewers team would go on to win the NL Central and advance all the way to Game 7 of the NLCS. They did it by playing their best baseball over the final month of the year, and they managed to make up ground even with the Cubs taking care of their own business.

The Cubs closed the 2018 season with a respectable 17-14 record. Milwaukee, meanwhile, went 22-7, finishing the year with a 95-67 record. Both teams ended up tied, and in a tiebreaking Game 163, the Brewers prevailed by a final score of 3-1.

That was a 6.0 game lead with around 30 games remaining. So with the Cubs currently trailing Milwaukee by 5.0 games, history shows us that they have plenty of time, especially with how they've been playing recently.

The Cubs are 35-16 since June 11. During that stretch, they have a win percentage of .686.

Applying that pace to the rest of their schedule, the Cubs are on pace to go somewhere between 29-14 and 30-13 the rest of the way. Let's be generous and give them the extra game...A 30-13 record for Chicago over their final 43 games gives them a final record of 99-63.

Even if the Brewers play solid baseball and go 24-19 over their final 43, that gives Milwaukee a final record of 98-64 and would make the Cubs the NL Central champions.

The other elephant in the room here is the tiebreaker. Unlike 2018, there's no Game 163 to be played. With the new collective bargaining agreement established before the 2022 season, playoff deadlocks are decided by head-to-head record, rather than a one game playoff. The Cubs are 2-4 against the Brewers this season, but they still have seven more head-to-head matchups to go. If the Cubs can manage a 5-2 record against Milwaukee the rest of the way, that gains them three games in the standings and the advantage should they end in a tie.

The Cubs absolutely have their work cut out for them, but it's far too early to write them off in the NL Central, especially with some winnable games coming up and plenty of head to head with the Brewers on deck.

If the 2018 Cubs can lose the division lead, the 2026 Cubs are perfectly capable of taking it.