Clay Holmes' Projected Contract Revealed After Declining Option

Starting pitcher Clay Holmes made the decision everyone expected on Thursday. 

Holmes declined his $ 12 million player option for the 2027 season. 

When the Chicago Cubs traded for Holmes at the trade deadline, they fully knew that the former All-Star pitcher would likely only be a one-year rental. It was the reason the New York Mets were willing to trade him in the first place at the August deadline. 

A few months later, that has become a reality. 

Holmes will head to free agency looking for a multi-year contract. He should receive more than $12 million annually on his new contract after posting solid numbers in each of his last two seasons as a full-time starter. 

The 33-year-old posted a 3.53 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts over 165 ⅔ innings pitched during the 2025 season. While Holmes had some ups and downs in his first season as a full-time starter, his 74th percentile Pitching Run Value showed that he can thrive in this role. 

Holmes then followed up that campaign with another solid pitching season. In 2026, the veteran right-hander posted a combined 3.29 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, and 78 strikeouts over 101 ⅓ innings pitched with the Mets and Cubs. 

His numbers with the Cubs weren’t anything special, as he had a 4.25 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP across nine starts. Holmes, though, is exactly the type of pitcher that the North Siders should be looking to bring back for the 2027 season. 

The two-time All-Star is an extreme groundball pitcher. He ranked in the 94th percentile in groundball rate (55.9%) in 2025 and ranked in the 99th percentile in groundball rate (60.8%) this past season. That pitching profile definitely plays well on this Cubs team. 

Chicago has three former Gold Glovers in the infield. Alex Bregman is a former Gold Glove winner and should win another one this year. Dansby Swanson is a two-time Gold Glove winner and is a finalist this year. Nico Hoerner is a two-time Gold Glove winner, and Michael Busch finished with a positive Fielding Run Value this past season. 

The good news for the Cubs is that Holmes doesn’t figure to be super pricey in free agency. Spotrac lists his market value at just two years, $27 million. That would put him at just $13.9 million annually, a price that is cheap for a pitcher of his caliber. 

Although Holmes declined his player option for next season, there is a chance that he will be back next season.