A three-way deadlock atop the Wild Card standings forces Chicago into a high-stakes sprint. With postseason odds secured, the North Siders must now battle for crucial seeding.
Things are getting tight in the National League Wild Card race.
With the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies both losing and the San Diego Padres winning on Friday, things are all tied up in the National League Wild Card race with only eight games to go. The Cubs, Phillies, and Padres will all enter Saturday’s contest with an 85-69 record.
The Cubs and Phillies have both been reeling a bit, while the Padres are surging at the right time. Chicago and Philadelphia are both 4-6 in its last 10 contests, and San Diego is 9-1 in its last 10 contests. The Padres also have the best record in the National League since August 1.
The good news for the Cubs is they own the tiebreaker over both the Phillies and Padres. They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies after going 6-1 against them and have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres after going 5-1 against them.
This late in the season, it’s not a question of whether the North Siders will make the playoffs. They are currently up five games on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are on the outside looking in. Since Chicago also owns the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, Arizona would need to gain six games in the win column with eight games to go.
That simply won’t happen, hence why the Cubs have a 99.9% chance of making the postseason on September 19.
After the Milwaukee Brewers clinched the National League Central earlier this week, the Cubs will be a Wild Card team for the second consecutive year. But something that is still yet to be determined is who the Cubs will be playing in the Wild Card Round.
The four teams that will most likely play in the Wild Card Round are the Braves, Cubs, Phillies, and Padres. The Braves should lock up the division early next week, leaving the Cubs, Phillies, and Padres as the three Wild Card teams.
The top two Wild Card teams will play each other, and the last Wild Card team will head to Atlanta to face the Braves. With all three teams currently tied, a lot of different scenarios could play out.
The Cubs could get the top Wild Card and face the Phillies or Padres. The Cubs could get the second Wild Card spot and head to either Philadelphia or San Diego. The Cubs could get the last Wild Card spot and play the Braves on the road.
The best path for the Cubs to move on to the Division Series is to get that top Wild Card spot. Hosting a three-game playoff series at Wrigley Field would give Chicago an edge against either one of those teams.
The next best seed for the Cubs is getting that last Wild Card spot. They would take on a Braves team that they just beat two out of three games earlier this week, and Atlanta might be an easier matchup than the Phillies in that first round.
The worst matchup for the Cubs, though, is if they get that No. 5 seed and have to travel to Philadelphia to play a tough Phillies team. The Phillies have both the pitching and offensive firepower at home to move on.
