The Arizona Diamondbacks trail the Philadelphia Phillies by four games with six to play, requiring a flawless road trip and significant help from rivals to keep their October dreams alive.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will enter the final week of the 2026 regular season with almost no margin for error. Their postseason hopes depend on their own results and nearly everything happening around them.
Arizona completed its final homestand by winning its series against the New York Yankees. The Diamondbacks erased a 4-1 deficit in Sunday’s finale and earned an emphatic 8-4 victory behind Nolan Arenado’s third grand slam of the season.
That comeback kept Arizona mathematically alive, but its path into October became increasingly difficult.
The road ahead
With six games remaining, the Diamondbacks sit four games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the last National League Wild Card spot.
They also trail the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres by five games. Chicago and San Diego are tied for the top two Wild Card spots.
Arizona’s task is straightforward. The Diamondbacks must win as many of their remaining games as possible while hoping the teams ahead of them leave an opening.
They will begin their final road trip with three games against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.
Colorado’s record might suggest a favorable matchup, but the Rockies won the previous series between the teams at Chase Field in August. They have no reason to make Arizona’s postseason pursuit easier.
The Diamondbacks will then travel to San Diego for their final three regular season games. Those could become their most important games of the year if they have not already been eliminated.
Arizona also needs significant help from Philadelphia, the closest team ahead of it.
If the Diamondbacks finish 4-2, the Phillies must lose all six remaining games. If Arizona goes 5-1, Philadelphia must finish 1-5 or worse. Even if the Diamondbacks win all six games, the Phillies can go no better than 2-4.
San Diego’s magic number is two. Any combination of two Padres victories or Diamondbacks losses would clinch a postseason place for San Diego.
A difficult task
Arizona no longer controls most of its destiny. Every Diamondbacks victory matters, but the results produced by Philadelphia, Chicago and San Diego during the next week carry considerable weight as well.
The Diamondbacks’ elimination number has fallen to three. They are the only remaining National League team that has not been eliminated and does not currently occupy a postseason position.
Arizona’s resilience has kept the race alive despite the increasingly unfavorable circumstances. Recovering from a three-run deficit against the Yankees demonstrated the urgency and competitive response required during the final week.
The Diamondbacks must continue producing complete efforts without allowing the standings to affect their concentration. They need disciplined at-bats, dependable pitching and calm execution in late innings.
Their ability to recover from difficult situations remains valuable, but another comeback might not always be available. Arizona can only handle its remaining schedule and hope that one of the teams ahead finally stumbles.
