Oct 16, 2026 2:36 PM

After a stunning NLCS sweep, Tarik Skubal faces a high-stakes free agency that could shatter records and ignite a bidding war between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.

The Los Angeles Dodgers entered 2026 pursuing a historic third consecutive World Series, but the National League Central-winning Milwaukee Brewers ended that dream.

Los Angeles possessed MLB’s most star-studded roster, while Milwaukee resembled an underdog. The Brewers nevertheless swept the Dodgers, beginning a longer-than-expected offseason that includes MLB’s biggest free agent question: Tarik Skubal.

Skubal’s future with Dodgers

The Skubal sweepstakes have arrived. The two-time Cy Young Award winner could become the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history and should dominate free agent discussion.

Recent offseasons featured elite players receiving enormous contracts, including Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. This winter, the attention shifts to Skubal.

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According to Sonja Chen from MLB.com, after the Dodgers were eliminated Thursday, Skubal declined to discuss free agency. The left-hander said his focus remained on the disappointment of the loss rather than his future.

“I’m not going to comment on my future really at all. Today sucks, you know, and that’s kind of where my head’s at,” Skubal said.

The baseball world will nevertheless examine his market. Outside the ongoing collective bargaining agreement negotiations and the upcoming World Series winner, Skubal’s free agency could become one of MLB’s biggest stories.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the record for the largest pitching contract by total value after receiving a 12-year, $325 million agreement from the Dodgers.

Zack Wheeler from the Philadelphia Phillies owns the highest annual salary among starters through his three-year, $126 million contract, worth $42 million annually.

Skubal will receive an enormous deal, but the value, destination and potential impact of a lockout on the timing remain uncertain.

His market could control the entire offseason, affecting other pitchers and potentially every leading free agent. Soto’s negotiations previously slowed free agency while teams awaited his decision, and Skubal’s situation could produce the same effect.

Skubal will eventually receive a nine-figure contract and could surpass Yamamoto’s record. With Los Angeles eliminated, the process has officially begun.

Will Dodgers sign Skubal?

Many teams would want the left-hander, but only a few may have the financial capacity to pursue him seriously.

Per Bob Nightengale from USA TODAY, the field could consist of only the Dodgers and New York Mets.

Nightengale reported in August that although Skubal publicly discussed potentially returning to Detroit, Los Angeles and New York were expected to be the only teams prepared to submit serious offers.

“Dodgers two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is saying all of the right things about his upcoming free agency, even revealing his interest about a potential return to Detroit,” Nightengale wrote.

“The cold-hearted truth is that there will be only two teams who will make serious bids for his services: The Dodgers and New York Mets. That’s it.”

Skubal’s upside

Skubal brings more than awards to the market. His ability to lead a rotation, handle major expectations and compete in demanding environments explains why financially powerful teams will prioritize him.

His refusal to discuss his future immediately after elimination also showed perspective. Skubal did not redirect attention toward his earning potential while the disappointment remained fresh.

Once negotiations begin, his combination of performance, experience and left-handed dominance will give him enormous leverage. The Dodgers can offer familiarity, while the Mets can present a new opportunity.

His decision could determine where other pitchers sign, how teams distribute their budgets and whether Los Angeles retains the most important free agent of the offseason.

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