As the Cleveland Guardians rack up wins, so do their chances of reaching the playoffs.
The Cleveland Guardians have had an up-and-down season, to say the least. There have been stretches where they look like one of the more complete teams in the American League, and others where the roster looks more
Despite all of those ebbs and flows, the Guardians are still well in the mix to claim a spot in the playoffs and get back to playing October baseball for the third time in four years. In fact, Cleveland’s playoff hopes are improving once again after their recent 9-3 stretch.
In the middle of August, the Guardians had just a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs’ model. That number improved to 46.9 percent after Cleveland won a series over the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies.
Now, on the final day of August, FanGraphs is giving the Guardians a 50.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. The model also gives Cleveland a 24.1 percent chance of catching the Chicago White Sox and winning the American League Central.
Just as the Guardians are trending in the right direction, so are their odds of reaching the postseason. And as Cleveland prepares for the final month of the season, the front office likes the spot that the team is in.
“We continue to be confident in the group of guys that are there,” Chris Antonetti said over the weekend.
“We feel we're capable of playing good baseball and running off a bunch of wins in a row or at least winning more than our share, and we did that on the road trip we still believe in the capabilities of the group in the clubhouse, and hopefully we our best baseball still in front of us.”
Aug 30, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates with right fielder Chase DeLauter (24) after hitting a two-run home run during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn ImagesAs Cleveland’s playoff chances are essentially a coin flip right now, there’s still a chance they could get even higher or quickly drop.
As it stands, the Guardians are fighting for one of the final Wild Card spots with a handful of other teams, including the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, and Minnesota Twins.
It just so happens that Cleveland will face three of those four teams during the final month of the regular season, starting on Tuesday with a three-game set with the Blue Jays. There’s a lot of baseball still left to be played.
The interesting piece to all of this is that each team, including the Guardians, is hovering around the .500 mark, even though it’s rare for a team with a losing record to reach the postseason. That said, record isn’t something the Guardians are focused on.
“It is different, but in terms of what the records are, I'm not sure it feels any different,” continued Antonetti. “I think we're usually paying attention to what are the chances of getting in and how many teams are in the mix and it's less focused on what the records are.”
While there’s still a lot of baseball to be played, Antonetti did make it clear the Guardians would not apologize if they made the postseason, and the computers continue to trend in that direction.
