History Not on the Cleveland Guardians Side in ALDS Deficit

The Cleveland Guardians face an uphill battle if they want to get back to get pasted the Chicago White Sox and advance to the American League Championship Series.

As it stands heading into Game 3 on Wednesday night, the Guardians are down 0-2 in the ALDS after dropping two disappointing games in front of a sold-out crowd at Progressive Field.

Anything is possible, and there’s nothing saying Cleveland can’t come back to win this series. Unfortunately for the Guardians, though, history isn’t on their side when determining the eventual team that will advance to the ALDS.

In the 93 instances in MLB history where a team has led 2-0 in a best-of-five playoff series, the leading team has gone on to win 83 times. Meaning, if history is any indication, the White Sox have an 89 percent chance of moving on to the ALCS, while the Guardians' chances sit at just 11 percent.

Another key point this stat doesn't mention is that Cleveland no longer has home-field advantage. Chicago will have at least two chances to close out the series in front of its home crowd, which has been starving for postseason baseball to return to the South Side for years. 

Only three teams in postseason history have lost their first two home games and still gone on to win the series.

The easy way to look at all of these numbers is to say that history always repeats itself, and more often than not, that is the case.

However, this Guardians core tends to defy the odds. Manager Stephen Vogt said right after Game 2's loss and reiterated on Tuesday that Cleveland plays its best baseball with its back against the wall.

To be fair, Vogt is correct: the Guardians do seem to pull through when the pressure is highest.

Whether it was the historic comeback at the end of 2025, or just this past year when Cleveland had just a 31 percent chance of reaching the postseason, but ended up winning the division altogether, the Guardians do find a way 

That said, all of the momentum in this series is with Chicago, and based on how past outcomes look, it's going to take another miracle for the Guardians to pull off enough historic comeback.  

Here’s the real stinger for Cleveland.

The last time a team trailed 0-2 in a best-of-five series and came back to win three straight and advance was in 2017. That’s when the New York Yankees came back to take down the then-Cleveland Indians in five games. 

For once, when the Yankees are involved, the Guardians are hoping that history does repeat itself in the case of 2026.