The two sides settled earlier this week and Buster Olney thinks the relationship is no worse for the wear.
Earlier this week, the Seattle Mariners and starting pitcher Bryce Miller settled on a contract for the 2026 season. Miller will make $2.425 million in order to avoid arbitration, and the M's gave him a contract option for 2027.
It's somewhat of a complex situation, so let's take a look at it bit-by-bit.
The arbitration process
Heading into the offseason, the Mariners had seven arbitration-eligible players. Miller, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Randy Arozarena, Matt Brash and Gabe Speier were those players. The M's had until Jan. 9 to come to a contract agreement with each player before exchanging arbitration numbers.
The M's came to agreements with the other six. Each side has a detailed knowledge of about what each player is worth, so those agreements are generally easy to come by. However, Miller and the Mariners weren't able to come to an agreement by that deadline, and had to exchange arbitration numbers. The Mariners said they wanted to pay Miller $2.2 million. Miller's people wanted $2.6 million or so. The two sides then had a few weeks to come to an agreement, as the they did, or they would go to an arbitration hearing.
What about the relationship between the two sides?
As I said on a recent episode of the 'Refuse to Lose' podcast, I feel that going to an arbitration hearing is a terrible thing. Because of that, I felt that the Mariners and Miller would settle and that everyone would move on and be happy for 2026.
Some fans on social media disagree and think the M's have permanently hurt their relationship with Miller over the difference of $400,000.
What the experts are saying
We spoke with ESPN MLB Insider Buster Olney on Thursday's edition of the podcast, and he's in agreement with me on this one:
I agree with you. I think once you settle and you don't go into the hearing room, then you're fine. It's in the hearing room where relationships are damaged. It's when the teams, or the lawyers representing the team and making the case on behalf of the team begin to speak that the players begin to get pissed off, quite frankly. Because you have players who of great accomplishment, they go into the room and what they hear is the negative, the negative, the negative as teams try to make their case. And I think if you avoid that, it's better. I think the bigger question, with Bryce Miller, of course, that we're all wondering is how healthy will he be?
Contract nuances
Even though Miller was given a contract option for 2027, he is still under team control through 2029 no matter what. The contract option is just a payment mechanism moving forward. He will still be on the Mariners, it's just the number that is up in the air.
The option is worth $6.075 million. If Miller pitches very well and would exceed that number in arbitration, the M's can exercise the option and pay him less, but he'd still get a big raise from 2026. If Miller would get less than the option in arbitration, the Mariners can decline the option. It sounds wonky, but the Red Sox did a similar thing with Jarren Duran for 2026.
There's also this note, from MLBTradeRumors:
Most teams these days adopt a “file and trial” approach, which means they cut off negotiations of one-year deals after the filing deadline. This is to give them leverage in pre-deadline talks and also to prevent players from filing absurdly high numbers in an attempt to set out an aggressive bargaining stance. An arbiter can only pick the player’s or the team’s number, not a midpoint.
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