According to a report from Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, the Seattle Mariners are reportedly going to give top prospect Colt Emerson a chance to make the team's Opening Day roster in 2026, similar to how they did with Julio Rodriguez in 2022.

“Players who are as talented as he is, who are wired the way he is, often move very quickly, and we don’t want to artificially hold him back,” Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said earlier this month. “I would expect that at some point next year he’ll be on the radar. And if that’s April 1, that’s great. That’s awesome. That means he came out and showed us that he was ready to go do it. And if it’s July or August, that’s OK, too. We don’t want to force him to the big leagues before he’s ready. We certainly don’t want to hold him back from impacting our team.

This is a major decision and a major development, so let's examine it from all angles:

The Emerson file

Ranked as a Top-10 prospect in the sport, Emerson won't even turn 21 years old until next July. A first-round pick of the Mariners in 2023, he hit .285 this past season with 16 homers, 78 RBIs and 14 stolen bases.

He played 90 games at High-A Everett, 34 games at Double-A Arkansas and six games at Triple-A Tacoma.

He joined our Refuse to Lose podcast in June, and you can listen to that episode below:

Top Prospect Colt Emerson Joins + M's Road Trip Was Huge, But Now Comes Another Hard Test + Cal Needs to Say 'No' to Things Refuse to Lose - a Seattle Mariners Podcast · Episode

Why an Emerson promotion could work

1) He just might be that good, and he just might be the best option that the Mariners have, especially at third base.

2) If Emerson isn't ready for the big leagues and has to be sent down, Ben Williamson is there to take the reigns, so there's a good, built-in backup there.

3) Because of the World Baseball Classic, the Mariners will have several key players out of spring training, meaning there's ample time for all young players to get work in big-league situations. The Mariners infield doesn't figure to be much affected, but Michael Arroyo is expected to represent Colombia, which means one less young player out there to require time, at least for a two-week stretch. Less competition for playing time could mean more exposure for Emerson, which could lead to an increased comfort.

4) If the Mariners bring up Emerson early, and he plays well enough to win a major award, the M's can get another first-round draft pick. This happened when Rodriguez won the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022.

Per MLB.com:

Ratified into the latest collective bargaining agreement, the PPI rewards teams for promoting their best prospects to the big leagues at the start of the season, enabling them to earn a Draft pick if said rookies accrue one full year of service time and then factor into a major postseason award.

Why it would be tough to see

1) Emerson has played just 40 games above High-A ball. Cole Young, who looked overwhelmed at times in his debut season, played 178 games above High-A, including an entire season of Double-A in 2024.

That doesn't mean that Emerson has to follow the same blueprint, but it's clear that big-league baseball is hard, even if you've had suitable minor league experience.

Even Rodriguez, who Jude references as a comparison for Emerson, played 46 games at Double-A or above before earning the job at the outset of 2022.

2) Like it or not, service time is always a worry for teams. Do the Mariners want to bring up Emerson at the start of the season, starting his clock and lessening their duration of team control?

3) The Mariners just got to within three innings of playing for the World Series. If they are serious about trying to get back, can they afford to basically sit out the third base market this winter on the hope that Emerson can earn the job?

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