Let me make this clear before things get slightly more confusing.

Starting pitcher Bryce Miller will be under contract with the Seattle Mariners for the 2027 season. The only question is how much money he will make.

OK. With that out of the way, let's dive in a bit.

Heading into 2026, Miller was eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career. Usually, teams and players settle on a contract to avoid an arbitration hearing because arbitration hearings are generally thought of as bad for player-team relations.

However, the M's and Miller couldn't settle and the two sides were destined for a hearing.

Then, it was announced that the two sides had agreed to a unique contract. Miller avoided arbitration in 2026, getting a $2.4 million deal. He was also given a team option for 2027 at nearly $6.1 million.

If the Mariners want to exercise that option on Miller, then he'd make about the $6.1 million. If they don't want to exercise that team option, Miller would still be on the Mariners in 2027, but he'd simply go through the arbitration process again. He's also arbitration-eligible in 2028 and 2029.

And that's where we are now. So, let's break it down a little further.

1) Simply put, Miller didn't pitch very well in 2026. He was injured at the beginning of the season and really struggled over the final three months, finishing at 4-10 with a 4.17 ERA.

If the Mariners decline this option and negotiate a new deal with him as an arb-eligible player, he'll make less than the $6.1 million. Regardless of how much money the Mariners save, they'll be saving money, and in this uncertain labor climate, every dollar saved is good and can go toward something else important that this team needs, especially if a salary cap is implemented.

2) Because the arbitration process compounds itself, the Mariners will actually save money over the next three years. I'm making up hypotheticals here, but if the Mariners paid Miller $6.1 million this year, and then $8.1 million in 2028 and $10.1 million in 2029, they'd be paying Miller almost $25 million over three years.

Again, hypothetically, if they decline the option and pay him $4 million this year, $6 million in 2028 and $8 million in 2029, they'd be paying him $18 million total, which would save the organization about $7 million over three years. Again, it's not overly significant, but it can help the Mariners build other parts of the roster.

3) That savings could also be significant if the Mariners wanted to trade Miller. Other teams will also value the bottom line.

Because they don't want to alienate an important player over a handful of million dollars over the next three years. That's the reason. Do you want to take the risk that Miller gets upset at you for this business decision?

That's what the M's will have to weigh over the offseason.