By now, you know the story.

The Seattle Mariners suffered a brutal loss on Wednesday night, blowing a 6-0 lead to lose to the San Diego Padres 7-6 at Petco Park.

Not only did the Mariners lead 6-0, they led 6-2 in the ninth inning with their closer on the mound, and still lost.

Andres Munoz allowed five runs on four hits and one walk in the effort. He has an ERA of 9.45 though seven appearances.

If you're looking for me to be irrational about the whole thing, I will angrily remind people that one game absolutely can make a difference in a season. The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game in both 2023 and 2024. 

They saw the positive difference that having Game 5 at home during last year's American League Division Series made, and they saw the negative difference that having Game 7 on the road during the American League Championship Series made.

One game matters, and it can matter a lot. Every loss like this can be the difference between making and missing the playoffs, and it can be the difference between home Game 5s and 7s and road ones. This loss can have that kind of meaning, and it's ridiculously disappointing.

But with the anger and irrational takes behind us, let's start to have a conversation: Should we be worried about Andres Munoz?

If you've read me here, or listened to the "Refuse to Lose" podcast, I've been pretty consistent on this for months now:

I believe, that when it's all said and done, Munoz will have had another excellent season. That said, he's had four consecutive years of declining velocities (entering 2026), and his control was spottier in the second half of last season. I've worried that worse control with worse velocity would lead to tougher outings. More pitches, more walks, more traffic, more opportunities for damage.

Again, I've believed that Munoz will still be solid overall, but that the rollercoaster will be winding at times, and the lows will be lower.

To be honest, we're seeing a mix of it all.

On the positive side? My velocity concerns have been largely proven false thus far.

His four-seam fastball is back at 98.7 mph, up from last season's 98.4. His sinker is at 98.5, up from last season's 97.8, and his slider is at 87.2, the fastest since 2024. I spoke to Munoz about his slider velocity earlier this season, and he explained the tweak he has made.

So, the velocity isn't really an issue, leading me to actually have more optimism. Higher velocity means you are harder to hit. If the control locks back in, then Munoz should be incredibly tough once again.

Munoz has struggled there. He has five walks in just 6.2 innings this season, and he's got three consecutive outings with at least one walk, and two of those outings featured two walks. All five of his walks come in the last three outings.

This has led to my fear: More traffic and higher pitch counts. He's thrown 24 pitches or more in each of his last three appearances, and he's done the tightrope walk in each one.

Munoz threw only 10 strikes in 24 pitches on Saturday night against the Astros, but got out of it. He actually threw 18 of 26 pitches for strikes on Wednesday, but his walk of the leadoff man set the entire inning in motion. Though he threw a high volume of strikes otherwise, those strikes weren't all quality, which contributed to some of the further traffic.

Some of you will roll your eyes at this, but I think a few things are important to consider.

1) On Friday night against the Astros, Munoz hadn't pitched for nearly a week. Remember, the Mariners got swept against the Rangers in Arlington, so Munoz didn't throw, and then there was a Thursday off day. Rust is a real factor, and it could have played a role in his Friday outing, which saw him throw 25 pitches.

2) If rust is a real concern, then overwork is a real concern too. Perhaps his taxing 25-pitch outing on Friday led to his taxing 24-pitch outing on Saturday. The two outings can absolutely snowball into each other.

3) Though walking the leadoff guy was poor on Wednesday, look at the rest of the hits Munoz gave up:

A shift-beating double on a squibber down the line by Gavin Sheets, an infield single by Ty France, and a 99-mph fastball that almost hit Ramon Laureano, but somehow looped into left field for a single.

The 0-2 hit to Luis Campusano on the poor slider is the one that Munoz will want back.

Those hits can be attributed to a bit of "that's baseball." And remember, when Munoz struggled in his second outing of the year against Cleveland, he wasn't helped by an immediate throwing error by Brendan Donovan, which scored a run.

As evidence of all this, his actual ERA is 9.45, while his FIP (expected ERA) is 4.36. It's still not where we're used to seeing it, but his results have been double as poor as they "should" be.

The increased velocity makes me more optimistic moving forward, but he has to show the focus to get ahead in the count and to attack hitters. When you issue walks, bad things happen, and bad things happened on Wednesday night.

You can't walk the tightrope consistently and get away with it.

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