Miami Marlins starter Robby Snelling’s latest start exposed command issues despite swing-and-miss flashes. Here’s what changed from his sharp outing versus the Mets.
The Miami Marlins are going to live with growing pains from Robby Snelling this spring. What matters is whether the lessons are compounding.
Thursday’s outing against the Philadelphia Phillies looked nothing like his sharp, controlled appearance against the Mets on February 21. The stat lines tell part of the story. The underlying data tells the rest.
Against the New York Mets, Snelling was surgical. In that abbreviated outing, the left-hander leaned almost exclusively on a two-pitch mix -- half four-seamers, half curveballs. He averaged 96.4 miles per hour with the heater, touched 96.9, and pounded the zone at an 80-percent clip with the fastball. He didn’t generate whiffs, but he didn’t need to. He got ahead, avoided free passes, and allowed zero hits.
It was clean. Efficient. Predictable, in a good way.
Fast forward to Friday against Philadelphia, and the picture shifted dramatically. Snelling lasted just 1.1 innings, allowing five hits and four earned runs with two walks. The Phillies forced him into damage-control mode almost immediately, and the contact quality jumped off the page.
According to Statcast, his four-seam fastball averaged 95.3 mph, down more than a tick from his outing for the Mets, and when it was hit, it was hit hard. Opponents posted a 103.2-mph average exit velocity on balls in play against the heater. That’s not bad luck. That’s loud contact.
The overall average exit velocity allowed was 95.2 mph. Five of seven balls in play were hit hard.
That’s the difference between surviving traffic and getting run over by it.
There were positives. The slider was legitimate. Snelling generated an 80-percent whiff rate on swings against it and posted a 63-percent called-strike-plus-whiff rate. That pitch missed bats in a way nothing did against the Mets.
But the Phillies also exposed a sequencing problem. His zone rate dropped to 44 percent overall. He fell behind more often. He expanded his mix to four pitches -- adding the slider and changeup -- but the added complexity didn’t equal added command.
Against the Mets, hitters didn’t chase. Against the Phillies, they didn’t have to.
The bigger takeaway isn’t velocity. He still touched 96.3 mph. It’s conviction. The Mets outing showed a young pitcher attacking with clarity. The Phillies outing showed a pitcher trying to out-think traffic once it had already formed.
Spring training is for experimentation. But if Snelling is going to force his way into meaningful innings for Miami, the formula looks more like the Mets' blueprint: fastball conviction, curveball trust, and controlled aggression.
The swing-and-miss stuff is there.
Now it’s about preventing the traffic that makes it irrelevant.
Join our ROUNDTABLE community! It's completely free to join. Share your thoughts, engage with our Roundtable writers, and chat with fellow members.
Download the free Roundtable APP, and stay even more connected!