Should the Baltimore Orioles Promote Heston Kjerstad?

The Baltimore Orioles had one of the strongest farm systems in baseball in the early 2020s, and while many of their players have grown into foundational pieces like shortstop Gunnar Henderson and catcher Samuel Basallo, not every player has panned out.

That includes outfielder Heston Kjerstad, whom the Orioles selected second overall in the 2020 MLB Draft and who has yet to play a game at the big-league level this year. For a former second overall pick now in his age-27 season, the window to become a meaningful contributor is starting to close.

The results in the majors have been underwhelming. Across parts of three seasons, Kjerstad has accumulated -1.1 bWAR while posting a .218 batting average, .284 on-base percentage, .649 OPS, 10 home runs and 36 RBIs.

Those numbers fall well short of what the Orioles envisioned when they spent the second overall pick on him several years ago, and the patience the organization has shown with him reflects the belief that the talent is still in there somewhere. Baltimore has had plenty of chances to trade him. Instead, they have trusted the process.

A right hamstring strain sidelined him until May this year and is the real reason he has not been an option at the big-league level. Prior to the injury he had been one of the standout performers in spring training and was likely on track to make the Opening Day roster had he stayed healthy.

When his rehab assignment began in May, he struggled to find his groove and the Orioles saw no reason to call him up before he was ready.

July has told a different story. Across 13 games with Triple-A Norfolk this month, Kjerstad has posted a .319 batting average, .339 on-base percentage, .899 OPS and three home runs. It is the kind of stretch that forces a conversation about whether he deserves another look at the big-league level before the season ends.

The honest answer is that the path is difficult to see right now. Baltimore has solid outfield depth, and even their biggest question mark in that group has started to produce more consistently in recent weeks.

Kjerstad can play both corner outfield spots and has experience at first base, but with Pete Alonso entrenched there that option does not exist. The most realistic scenario for a call-up involves an injury to someone ahead of him on the depth chart, which would make him the obvious first choice.