Evaluating the Orioles' Shane Baz Trade After One Season

In need of another frontline starter, the Baltimore Orioles made a bold move last offseason, acquiring starting right-hander Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for the 33rd overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft and multiple prospects--Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret and Austin Overn.

Believing in the 27-year-old's potential, Baltimore inked Baz to a five-year, $68 million extension in late March.

However, looking back on the trade now, the Orioles shouldn't be done yet when it comes to rounding out their rotation. Baz went 6-15 in 31 starts this season, posting a 4.11 ERA with 154 strikeouts in 179.2 innings pitched.

His four September starts were especially underwhelming with him recording a 4.76 ERA on the month. The Orioles' 7-5 extra-innings win over the New York Mets came in spite of Baz allowing seven hits and three earned runs while only striking out two batters through four innings.

Baz wrapped up his first season in a Baltimore uniform with a no-decision against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sept. 21, yielding five hits and issuing three walks even though the Orioles came away with a 4-3 win.

These results were a far cry from a decent July in which Baz compiled a respectable 3.00 ERA. Baz had a remarkable outing against Kansas City, fanning nine batters even as he allowed eight hits and two earned runs.

Nights like that one have shown that while the talent is there, Baz must find ways to limit contact and remain unpredictable to opposing batters who posted a concerning 41.2% hard-hit rate and low 21.5% whiff rate against him.

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore's other top starter, was also recently signed to a long-term deal but has battled through injuries. Bradish underwent a sports hernia surgery last month and is not that far removed from a season-ending UCL tear that he suffered in 2024.

There is a good chance that the Orioles will have to rely on Baz more than ever next season if left-hander Trevor Rogers walks in free agency.

Considering what the Orioles gave up to get Baz, he hasn't lived up to what they expected to see from him so far, which is a bit worrisome as he will be approaching 30 in a few years.

For now, president of baseball operations Mike Elias and newly hired general manager Jared Banner should hope that Baz continues to perfect his arsenal consisting of a lethal knuckle-curve.